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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Don Westermeyer	Respond to of 18691

Michael, The market is nutty about AMZN! The float is small and the MM's like to squeeze the short players. Anything can drive this stock as no one cares about profit. I imagine this is a pre-earnings run to scare the shorts into covering. IMO you will have to wait a few quarters for this thing to bust down. AMZN will eventually run out of money and have to issue more stock, but this will take a few quarters.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: Tom Markowski	Respond to of 18691

Mike....Shorting is a dangerous game. Yahoo...AMZN...CTXS...they all look so easy. Do the research. And don't just go by what people on this thread are shorting. Personally...I'd rather short "ASIA" casualties. Coke is a big short for me now. The MM's will crush your n..ts....tomorrow could be very bullish.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 5:58:00 PM
From: Brooks Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Re AMZN -- People in my Washington DC neighborhood book club are yakking about how great it is to order books from AMZN. My computer-hating wife can't wait to order from them, she says. The other day my sister in Louisville was busy ordering her first books from AMZN while we were chatting via AOL. If this anecdotal experience is at all representative, then AMZN is building franchise value that hasn't even begun to be factored into the stock price. I'm not long but I would sure think twice before going short, and then think again. I'd love to short YHOO but so far haven't done the DD and lack the guts. YHOO looks to me like a whole 'nother kettle of fish. My theory is that advertising-based web companies will be shaken out big time this year as advertisers start to demand evidence that banner ads work (and I doubt that they do.) However, web-based direct marketers like AMZN just might have a dynamite business model. The potential economies of scale are mind-boggling. Think of YHOO as a TV network whose advertisers may pull out. Think of AMZN as a catalogue merchant with no mailing costs.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: Cosmo Daisey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Mike, Did you see my reasons for not shorting AMZN that I posted on SI? I'm not trying to be a smart ass here but this is a horrible short. It doesn't take guts to short AOL and AMZN it takes research to find out you don't want to. Don't follow the whims of the posters on this board with their hot dog attitude. "look at me, I shorted AMZN" CD

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Valentino	Respond to of 18691

<<Can someone explain to me why AMZN is 8 points>> Herb Greenberg, a financial writer for the San Francisco Chroncile, is reporting: SCUTTLEBUTT From one of my plugged-in spies: Don't be surprised if Amazon.com reports ''blowout'' numbers from Christmas. Hope this helps Valentino

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (705)	1/14/1998 6:48:00 PM
From: Henry P	Respond to of 18691

>> Can someone explain to me why AMZN is 8 points up ... I'm no experts but I myself was looking at Internet stocks to move my funds from Asia-related equities. My thinking was Internet-based companies are less affected by Asia spending. I guess other investors agree. Having said that, I shorted both AMZN and YHOO for a few points at times based on the volatility of the stocks. Henry