All:
What a day. It keeps getting better and better. Hopefully we will see the king of stock price that we all expected when we bought a while back. Nanda, I hope that your family will be O.K soon. My best wishes. By the way, did you make all your money in the market, because with the amount of shares that you have bought in this stock and all the other ones, when I do the math it seems like a lot to me. Don't mean to be intrusive; just need some encouragement to think that better days are ahead for me. Just wondering if you started small and were very successful quickly.
The following article may help to explain the recent "rational exuberance" that investors have displayed with regards to HVSF. I copied it from Bloomberg; it was a pain because it is a paid service.
Sorry for the appearance, but it's helpful and encouraging information. I hope that soon HVSF will be mentioned in these types of articles. It's about time that this product gets the recognition that it deserves.
Regine: Content de lire tes posts a nouveau. J'espere que tout va bien.
Taking Stock
Wed, 14 Jan 1998, 6:10pm EST
BN 1/13 Investors See Profit in Impotence Drugs (Update1): Taking Stock
Investors See Profit in Impotence Drugs (Update1): Taking Stock
(Adds specifics on Zonagen's timetable and Vivus' setback.)
New York, Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Companies that make drugs
for male impotence have been good investments lately, and
investors and analysts expect more gains as several drugmakers
race to capture what could be a $4 billion-a-year market.
Senetek Plc shares gained 293 percent in 1997 as it tested
an injectable impotence drug. Zonagen Inc., which is developing a
pill, rose 94 percent. MacroChem Corp., which is testing a
topical gel, gained 40 percent for the year. Pfizer Inc., which
has a pill, Viagra, in the final stages of government approval,
returned 82 percent.
Some 50 million men in the U.S., Europe and Japan suffer
from impotence. They are a largely untapped market because
relatively few seek help from the existing drugs, which cause
discomfort -- either injected or inserted.
''There's clearly a market here, so if they can come up with
more sophisticated drugs, the sky's the limit,'' said Alex
Zisson, an analyst at Hambrecht & Quist.
In 1996, this market was worth $500 million in the U.S.,
Europe and Japan, health-care consultants Mehta & Isaly said in a
report last year. In 2003, they see it reaching $3.8 billion.
Investors are looking at two basic types of impotence
stocks: invasive and non-invasive. The advantage of injections
and urethral insertions is they are already tested and on the
market. But they can be uncomfortable. The pills, if they are
effective, could clobber them.
'Biggest Drug in History'
In pill stocks, the trendsetter will be Pfizer's Viagra, if
it wins government approval. The drug promises to increase the
flow of blood to the penis, causing erection.
''Some people think Viagra could do three or four billion
annually of revenue, which would make it the biggest drug in
history,'' Zisson said. The biggest seller now, at $3.7 billion a
year, is the ulcer drug Prilosec, made by the Swedish company
Astra AB and sold in the U.S. by Astra Merck Inc.
''The question is how many people will go into their doctors
to talk about this,'' Zisson said. ''And the second hurdle is,
will it work?''
Of more than 15 companies working on impotence remedies,
analysts and investors say, the potential of a huge market will
keep boosting the stocks of Pfizer, Senetek, MacroChem and
Zonagen. They also like Schering-Plough, which will market
Zonagen's pill, and returned 95 percent in 1997.
Stock Picks
Bio-Technology General Corp., which is developing an
impotence medicine that is placed under the tongue, saw its
shares fall 18 percent in 1997 though its earnings per share
leaped 488 percent over the past 12 months. Analysts say this can
be a sign of an undervalued stock.
''It's a small medical technology company that's making
money,'' which separates it from most of the other small
impotence drug companies that don't yet have income, said A.
Alexander Arnold 3rd, managing director of Trainer, Wortham & Co.
in New York, which oversees $2.2 billion.
Bio-Technology General sells other hormone-related drugs,
from which it now derives its income.
The biggest loser among impotence stocks, Vivus Inc., fell
41 percent last year, mostly on news last month that it couldn't
meet production goals for its urethral insert pellet, Muse. Vivus
said revenue for the fourth quarter would decline 25 percent as a
result.
Looking forward, two scenarios seem possible: One treatment
could become dominant, burying the competition, or the success of
one could help the others.
A marketing blitz by drug giant Pfizer could break the
silence on a taboo topic, prompting more men to seek treatment
with any one of the remedies.
Last year, some of these stocks saw their impressive gains
erode, reacting to good news on Pfizer's progress and the bad
news from Vivus. With word of government drug approvals expected
in the next two quarters, analysts say these stocks could recover
from slumps of the past few months. They expect the Food and Drug
Administration to approve Pfizer's pill by mid-1998 at the
latest, and Zonagen's pill perhaps a year after.
Fund Holdings
In 1997, the best-performing U.S. mutual fund won the title
by holding Senetek. Half of the $20 million American Heritage
Fund, which returned 75 percent last year, is in the impotence
drug maker. The fund's manager, Heiko Thieme, said he is
targeting a growing market as a baby boomers slide into middle
age and the problems that can come with it.
Bigger funds, like the $2.6 billion Putnam Health Sciences
Trust are also investing in impotence drugs. The fund, which was
the best-performing health and biotechnology fund in 1997, has obvious holdings in Pfizer and Schering-Plough, and also owns Zonagen stock.
Zonagen, as a smaller company, needs only to grab a small portion of the market to find success, Carlson said.
"It's potentially a very under-reported condition, and the awarenes of an oral drug could create a lot more interest in people coming to see a doctor about it," said David Carlson, a small capitalization portfolio manager at Putnam.
Go HVSF !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Krukov |
