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Gold/Mining/Energy : North American Palladium(AMEX:PAL)- PGM Producer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (185)	1/14/1998 6:58:00 PM
From: WWS	Respond to of 976

Bobby, I'm in, as of today, albeit in a small way. Bill

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (185)	1/15/1998 2:09:00 AM
From: Jason Marcotte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 976

Wednesday January 14, 1:54 pm Eastern Time Palladium price rise raises spectre of 1997 re-run By Patrick Chalmers LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Palladium's return to 18-year highs on Wednesday, up on last year's records, raised the spectre of a re-run of the 1997 supply squeeze and fuelled talk of a search for substitutes. But dealers and analysts alike questioned whether the metal's near-25-percent price surge so far in 1998 was really sustainable, saying delays were way off being of last year's proportions and expressing confidence in Russia's palladium stockpiles. ''If anything, the Russians seem to have got plenty of metal behind them somewhere which they will be able to export once they have got the paperwork sorted out,'' said one London dealer, who added that Moscow would not be disappointed to see the metal at these prices. ''In the past they looked to massage a steady demand out of the market though I'm not sure that's the case now with the dollar as strong as it is,'' he added. The metal is used mainly to make car catalysts, in which they help remove noxious exhaust emissions, in electronics and in dentistry. Palladium rose into the $240s in June and August last year, when Russian supply delays paralysed the platinum and palladium lease markets, prompting consumers into a rush to buy spot metal. Tony Warwick-Ching, precious metals analyst for Flemings Global Mining Research said supply tightness would remain a market feature this year. ''Russia apparently did move a lot of PGMs (platinum group metals) to the U.S. at the end of last year, but it was not on the same scale as late 1996 deliveries, suggesting we could see a very tight picture if the wheels don't start turning in Russia and if Japan does not tail off as an end market,'' he told Reuters. ''I understand that sales this year are going to be handled by a joint venture involving Almaz, Norilsk and the ministry of finance, so we are going to have a slightly unlikely committee of bureaucrats, producers and traders. I don't think that's been finalised yet,'' he added. He said the question of export licences, which took so long to get last year, and the renewal of supply contracts with the Japanese also remain to be resolved. ''I would have thought there would not be the chaos two years running in terms of licences,'' he added. Almaz, or Almazjuvelirexport to give the Russian precious metals export agent its full name, said on Tuesday that PGMs supplies were officially on hold until the Russian government provided the necessary documents. It did stress that 1997 should be seen as the exception rather than the rule, though market reaction to its statement was hardly a vote of confidence in the remark, with Tokyo dealers in particular piling in to buy stocks of the metal while they could overnight. Tokyo dealers said on Tuesday that a delay in Russian palladium deliveries and a consequent surge in prices were likely to fuel the search by palladium users for alternative metals. ''End-users are fed up with a repeated disruption in Russian palladium deliveries to Japan, following last year's half-year suspension,'' said one trader at a major Japanese trading house. ''If the delay prolongs, they (customers) will speed up the process of substituting palladium with other metals,'' he said. Some traders expect prices may rise to $280 in the medium term, possibly surpassing gold prices which hit a fresh 18-1/2 year low of $278.50 at last Monday's morning fix in London. But while Japanese consumers may wail at yet another disruption to their supplies, the likelihood is that Russia is far from damaging world appetite for the rare white metal whose supply it dominates. Interviews conducted late last year in the wake of the earlier price hikes indicated remarkably robust demand despite the existence of some scope for substitution in some of the sectors using the metal. Whether that demand will sustain current prices, which have matched the highs reached last year only after six-months of supply delays, is another question. ''I think end-users have sufficient warehouse stocks to cope with a few months of delay in Russian PGM deliveries,'' said another bullion house official in Tokyo on Wednesday. And so it seemed, with palladium giving back some of its earlier gains as Wednesday progressed to reach $235.75/$237.75 an ounce, just down on Tuesday's London close and well down on session highs of $255.00 bid.