To: Barry A. Watzman who wrote (45585 ) 1/15/1998 2:44:00 PM From: Tony Viola Respond to of 186894
Barry, re: "There may not be any anticipation at all, the "Merced Boom" might not come for 6-18 months after first shipment, depending on how the volume ramp up goes (and it could be slow, even disappointing, at first)." In years past, 80's and 90's, in the computer industry, a company who was coming out with a new generation machine would generally take a healthy and permanent pop in stock price. Getting and holding this pop depended on some other factors, like the company's reputation in introducing previous successful products that had significant advantage over competition, meeting schedule for introduction, meeting rampup goals, meeting performance and reliability goals, meeting yield or other test goals, etc. The significant thing is that the pop in price happened quarters before the new machine was in full production. Merced is a new generation machine that promises a very significant jump in performance, scalability, and, I hope RAS, data integrity, I/O bandwidth and security (dependent on new S/W for some of these). Both UNIX (HP, Sun) and NT compatibility promise to make it the most versatile 64 bit microprocessor. Essentially all computer makers getting behind it will certainly give Intel and HP the incentive to get it out the door. (As if Intel needs any further incentive over what is provided by Andy et al). I would hope that, with Intel's great record in introducing new products on schedule, same great reputation for manufacturing, marketing, etc., they would get rewarded with that pop in stock price without having to wait 6 to 18 months after intro. I think it will. Tony