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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4431)	1/15/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

<<Mason, it's pretty clear to me that your guessing. I'm sorry to participate in such folly>> Not true! I'm using a model which basically assumes a slight upward trend. I noticed the last time that the semi equipment industry was stuck flat in the bottom of its range that individual issues fluctuate in a trading range. I short issues one standard deviation above their moving average (i.e. the big gainers, assuming there is no underlying objective reason for the move up), and go long with issues at the bottom of their range, with some subjective assessment involved, i.e. I look at Lam's downward correction to be a little more reliable, since I think the company's prospecs are a little weak, and SFAM's correction upward to be a little more reliable, since it is a comer. Actually, this is the opposite of guessing, since I lose the benefit of predicting whether the sector is headed up or down in the near-term. I also keep an index (which I used to post) to compare gains/losses to the overall sector on a quantitative basis. Yesterday, for instance, I shorted ASM, which had gone over 71 although the news was unfavorable (a downgrade by a relatively minor analyst). I'm long Asyst, which is low in its range on generally good news (i.e. good whisper numbers for sales this quarter and reporting late next week). I don't expect anyone else to participate. I just thought you guys would find the research interesting. I'll give you an honest report of how it works. It has been doing quite well so far.