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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (377983)7/23/2018 12:16:28 PM
From: zzpat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 542945
 
So we have three potential disasters

1) Trade ending with China
2) China stops funding our debt/sells our debt
3) the petro yuan.

We have almost zero influence over any of these events.



To: Sun Tzu who wrote (377983)7/23/2018 12:45:58 PM
From: ryanaka  Respond to of 542945
 
Today's yield curve is very close to flat ...

Now:


Just before the 2008 decline ...


and near the 2000 peak ...


So, additional outside stress can aggravate the impact of Fed's rate hike. For example, if Powell raises rate in a rather iffy condition (with slightly less than half of fed presidents dissenting), and the market reacts negatively, China can sell like 10% (=$100B) of their UST holdings and the negative impact can get much worse than selling it in other times.


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