To: kemble s. matter who wrote (27658 ) 1/15/1998 7:00:00 AM From: James L. Fleckenstein Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Kemble and Ian, I profess no insight into market mechansims or dynamics. While very INTERESTED, I am still very early in my learning phase of markets. I am a physician and have been more interested in paying off debt over the last several years. I have some money in retirement funds in which I have no choice but to be long. With a brother AND a sister who are skeptical of "the mania" it has been difficult to rationalize being cocky about being long, after all, they SHOULD know more than me since I know more about medicine than they do. Still, in the rising market of the last few yearrs, I eventually had to act contrarian to the contrarians and made some money in the long market. I have traded quite a few stocks in the last 2 years and mostly long in Borland and a few small caps. I should say that my biggest profit was based on the ONLY suggestion Bill ever gave me and that was to buy puts on MU when it was peaking. Sadly I only bought 10 puts and made a 7-fold profit in 3 days. Bill bought 200 for his own account. I have been learning TA because it is interesting to me and I have bet some hunches based on "the story" and TA. For example, I was playing the pre-earnings hype of big techs and then selling before the earnings came out to take the smaller but sure-thing profit, rather than having to be right about the actual numbers. That is much riskier now it seems. To me, if the compelling evidence is that a stock is going to go down, then I will buy a put. If the evidence is that it is going to go up, I buy a call. I swear no allegiance to a direction. I do read Bill's summary every day because it shows what is unadulterated bearishness. Mix that with the multitudes of bullish appraisals throughout the univers and a balanced view seems to emerge. Guess that's about all I have to say about that.