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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jyoti sharma who wrote (3037)	1/14/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78634

Regarding ADR's on NYSE I do not see any big bargains. I guess I would argue Telebras can be a big bargain. It regularly oscillates between 90 and 120 (sometimes in a matter of days!) but there is a timetable, value, and growth prospects. A simple valuation model - the government expects minimum $20B for its share (50%) of the company and maximum $30B. This translates to a range of $125 to $188 in recognized value per share by the Fall of 1998. Minimal debt, very strong cash flow, cost inefficiecies just hurting to be squeezed out. A small step outside Brazil's business cycle. I analyzed it for Microsoft Investor (spotlight, 1/5, investor.msn.com) if you're interested. There I tried to emphasize an understanding of the government and currency issues as well, which are very important if one is to feel confident in Brazil. Shares currently at 104ish. I've been telling people (http://www.sealpoint.com ) for about 3 months to wait for under 100 to buy. As privatization nears, I'll raise that target buy price. It likely will hit the 90's again soon, and at that price, Telebras is every bit the value of our good old American St Joe's Paper or Hyde Athletics. Mike