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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (7700)	1/14/1998 10:35:00 PM
From: FawnVu	Respond to of 213173

Additional Positive Comments on AAPL from the CC. Check latest Yahoo news. Analysts agreed that the report is very clean and expected that people will react positively tomorrow. I personally think that AAPL will be up about $1 or so tomorrow and continue to inch up as more development news come out.

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (7700)	1/14/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

It is a good article. It seems street analysts are cautiously optimistic about Apple's future. In Q2, they mentioned with 1.3b of revenue Apple could break even, which matches what I estimated. Well, it's definitely sure Apple is going to be in the black thru the entire '98, based on the following rationales: - In Q2: * All cloners are gone, the sales from cloners will mainly be flown into Apple's revenue; * G3 will be sold worldwide, which could further boost international revenue, particular in Japan's new fiscal year; * Apple's not heavily count on consumer quarter (Q1) in recent years, hence the pattern of selling more in Q1 may not be true; * Apple's management team has stablized the cost cutting mechanism, and more understand where the revenue was generated, which will help Q2 profitability; - In Q3 & Q4: * Anderson has mentioned the revenue will start growing, which at least can generate similar revenue to Q1; * New OS will be shiped which could generate more incomes; * Pre-school opening season is the best business period; From the above future prospects, we can easily estimate that Apple's earning will be like the following: Q1 - $0.33 (or 0.37, I prefer the later one); Q2 - $0.15 (purely speculated, if Apple has 1.4b revenue); Q3 - $0.33 (I take Anderson's words as the supporting assumption); Q4 - $0.45 (Pre-school opening quarter, as well as Anderson's words for revenue increase forecast); Then, we come up at $1.26 per share net. If I used previously assumption that in the same computer company group's EPS= 28, then the correct price now should be around $35.25. Maybe tomorrow Apple's stock will be in a wide swing, either positive or negative. But, for a longer term (6-12 months), the reasonable price will be surfaced out to align with other companies. I really cheer for Apple's bright, improving future. Good luck to all. Phil