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To: RGinPG who wrote (8154)1/14/1998 11:26:00 PM
From: Thomas M.  Respond to of 95453
 
It was the correction of July 1996. She turned bearish, and the market turned on a dime and rocketed up. She returned to the bull camp at the end of the year, and the market turned down intraday 100+ points the instant the word got out. She has been fairly accurate since. Her explanation sounded extremely plausible to me. Her work is extremely mechanical, and one of her main indicators (cash-flow I think) was thrown out of whack by a change in the time-to-reporting by companies. Bill Wood has chosen a poor example of panicking at the bottom. The reason I'm not infatuated with EG's market calls is precisely that they are not subjective enough.

BTW, it sounds like Wood's theory is based on an inflationary environment. Currently, the disconnect between the stock and bond markets are signaling a different type of world. Has he checked out the 1930s or the late 1800s? In his defense, the deflationary economy of Japan, which has had declining interest rates and a bear market in stocks, was preceded by a sharp runup in interest rates right before the roof caved in.

Tom