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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (880)	1/15/1998 1:41:00 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 9980

Just some simple facts to consider on Russia before shorting TRF. GDP - $800 bln (US CIA). I believe, I saw a figure around $420 bln elsewhere (Russian sources). Market cap (rts-1)-$ 40 bln. GDP is 1/2 of that in Soviet times, declined severely, but crossed into positive growth (0.5%) this year. 3% growth is expected in 1998. Russia has little Asian exposure (4%). Foreign investment - $9 bln, expected to grow. Risk: shaky political system, debt, corruption, ... Risks shorting: it is likely that Russia will explode to the upside once asian crisis is over, because of valuation. -Vi