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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: uu who wrote (4439)	1/15/1998 7:30:00 AM
From: Jay M. Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Addi, AMAT is my favorate equip for the long term. However, I'm using a $22 target price over the next 6 months. This is my initial target price. I obviously have posted many times that 1X revenue is achievable. Admittedly, this is an extreme valuation metric for a company of the quality of AMAT. However, I have seen first hand what can happen when fund managers panick and try to get out at the same time. I use this metric predominately to capture the bulls attention as to the possible risks inherent in equipment land currently. I will revisit the issue of valuation once that price is achieved. I'm currently bearish on ANY company with large pacific rim exposure. In addition, I truely believe that die shrinks alone can satisfy 15% global PC growth in 1998 with incremental capacity adds of .25 micron equipment in the first half making up for any demand elasticity that is created from lower PC and component prices. In closing, for balance of perspective ,and to assure you I have an open mind, memory prices have risen rapidly in the last week. While this is a large component supporting AMAT at $35, I personally believe it is because of short term issues. I'm currently watching this situation very carefully to ensure value added posts for the thread. Jay