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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jyoti sharma who wrote (3045)	1/15/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78645

Hkg unpegging or Chinese devaluation = - 1,000 DJII. Would you please lay out your reasons why you think there would be that reaction? I want to understand this situation better than I do. What are the odds of an unpegging/devaluation in your opinion? Are those countries/companies up to their eyeballs in leveraged debt as well?

To: Jyoti sharma who wrote (3045)	1/16/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78645

Can't resist throwing my two cents in. Although anything is possible short term re price. The stark reality is that TBR will be privatized meaning there will be an auction and companies will be viewing the value of TBR as a business as well as a strategic addition to their existing business. IMHO within a year this will establish a significant new price level for TBR stock and this is irrespective of the US, Asian or Latin American markets. I expect conservatively a 45-50% increase from present levels within 12 months although I am hoping it will be eight months, and the only downside i see is possible political risk in Brazil, which i don't know how to quantify. I agree that the US market is overpriced and that Asia may be slow to recover but this has little to do with the value of TBR's many franchises not to mention it's 3.5 million cellular subscribers, an operation that has been growing 60% annually. It is also possible that the auction price exceeds all expectations because how many future TBRs are there going to be? I am also very positive on a Brazilian bank UBB that seems to me to be very underpriced, but in this case there is no catalyst for establishing a new price level, so while i own it too, I don't know when it will go up, just that it will eventually. In the meantime it's selling for around book and has a 15% return on equity. I'm willing to wait. BTW I aprreciate your analysis of the price premiums for the Korean ADR's. I had no idea that such inefficiencies could exist. I sthere anyway to make investments in Korea withoug paying a premium ? Perhaps a company that owns pieces of Korean companies?