Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7794)	1/15/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: David R. Evans	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12039

Hello Jack, I try to stay away from the bottoms because I also lost too much money there. If you look at the example I used of IBM in my last post you will see a very good example of this. On 7/32/96 IBM closed at $45.12 which proved to be the bottom of that cycle. MACD (13-34-89) would not have given you the green light until 7/29/96 at $52.62. Dahl was even lazier because he didn't say yes until 8/14/96 at $55.81. I know that there are many people out there who do not like the idea of missing a 10 point ride BUT if you think of it as INSURANCE you might feel better about it. StochRSI (14) got you in on 6/17/96 at $51.00 which in the long run proved to be a little early BUT if you hung in there you would have been happy in the end. Which way is better? I guess the way you feel the most comfortable. If you can have fun, make money and sleep at night you have the best system in the world. Dave Evans

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7794)	1/15/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Richard Estes	Respond to of 12039

"Most systems discussed on this board wait until a major uptrend is established, well after the bottom" Or at a breakout from a base of more than 3-6 months. these one day turnarounds usually don't hold but if a stock bases for min 3 months a breakout is worth following. The bigger the base, the bigger the move. TIM the bud-man always sets his tc2000 charts at 19% to see what is basing and for how long.

To: Jack Landis who wrote (7794)	1/16/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: Chandler H. Everett	Respond to of 12039

Jack.......as one who has continually sought the holy grail of finding the bottom that comes before the RISE, I have finally decided to give up and concentrate on finding the bottom of the "Next" RISE after the Up trend has been established. Richard has always been right on this, but I had to go and try to prove him wrong. Your Weighted Stochastic when viewed on a weekly chart turning upward through its 3 week MA at the same time that PDI(8) is crossing up from below MDI(8) is still the best AND simplest signal for a reversal off a bottom that I have found, and believe me, I look for better ones every day. THE HIGHER THE REVERSAL OF THE WEIGHTED STOCHASTIC, the greater the chance that what is happening is a move out of a Down Wave 4 into an Up Wave 5 (Elliott), which is the classic GET Type One Trade. This has a greater chance of success, but a lower chance of a BIG run up. You pays your money, etc, etc... Just my current thinking anyway. BW Chan