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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: THE ANT who wrote (966)8/19/2018 10:41:25 AM
From: elmatador4 Recommendations

Recommended By
John Pitera
marcher
sixty2nds
Snowshoe

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13801
 
The 2008 financial crisis never really ended

By Eshe Nelson5 hours ago

Most retellings of the 2008 financial crisis, which began in the US and swiftly spread across the world, hinge on the understanding that the crisis came to an end—and that, in the US, it ended quite quickly.

Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World (Penguin Random House, Aug. 7, 2018), the latest book by British historian and Columbia University professor Adam Tooze, says this isn’t so. Though Tooze is a historian, it would be misleading to call this a history book. Ten years later, the the crisis still essentially determines how the financial system works, thanks to the political decisions and interventions by central banks in response to it. There has been no “return” to normal.

Tooze, whose previous subjects include the Nazi economy and American global power during the interwar period of the 20th century, offers a compelling account of what he argues was a North Atlantic crisis created by a global “interlocking matrix” of corporate balance. While tackling the political nature of both the crisis and the responses to it, he also unpacks the technicalities of financial underpinnings of the crisis, highlighting the importance of the the global banking system’s dependence on the US dollar.

Crashed tears apart the notion that the 2008 crisis was American, and then, separately, a few years later, there was a European sovereign debt crisis. These crises, Tooze writes, were intrinsically linked in part because European banks had heavily involved themselves in America’s financial system. And this also meant Europe was deep into the US subprime-mortgage market—nearly a third of high-risk mortgage-backed securities that weren’t backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac were held by European investors. One of the surest signs of the deepening of the crisis was the desperate attempts of banks, particularly European institutions, to access dollars. Interbank lending rates sky rocketed and worsened the crisis.

With the wisdom of hindsight, Tooze believes the critical intervention that mitigated the crisis was not the bank bailouts or central bank asset-buying programs but rather “unprecedented transnational action by the American state” to pump dollars into banks all over the world.

Tooze certainly isn’t celebrating these measures but acknowledges that they worked in the short term. He has unflinching scorn for the collective European response to the 2012 crisis, writing that “millions have suffered for no good reason.” While millions suffered in the US as well, Tooze argues that at least in the US, a political decision was made: save Wall Street first and worry about Main Street later. In Europe, there were too many opposing ideas and leadership couldn’t decide how to act. The lack of coordinated response was a disaster. Ask any Greek or Italian today if the crisis is over, and they’d likely share Tooze’s opinion.

Reinserting the role of the dollar in this piece of financial history is not just a matter of setting the record straight, writes Tooze, but also essential if we want to adequately prepare for the consequences of Donald Trump’s “declaration of independence from an interconnected and multipolar world.” The dollar locks the global financial system together, and it took the Fed plus a shaky US political coalition—that understood the importance of the US dollar to foreign banks—to take the actions necessary in the aftermath of the crisis to alleviate it. If something were to happen again, Trump’s “America First” policy outlook doesn’t indicate a desire to take actions explicitly designed to help other countries.

The supply of US dollars funneled into the global finance system in response to the crisis partly ended up in emerging markets. In recent years, many developing countries used the low rates that followed the crisis to gorge on dollar-denominated debt. The impact of that can be seen today as the US dollar rises and investors wonder if these countries will be able to repay all the debt they’ve accrued. It’s bringing down currencies as far flung from each other as Turkey and Indonesia.

A taste-test to see if it’s your styleWhat we have to reckon with now is that, contrary to the basic assumption of 2012-2013, the crisis was not in fact over. What we face is not repetition but mutation and metastasis. The financial and economic crisis of 2007-2012 morphed between 2013 and 2017 into a comprehensive political and geopolitical crisis of the post-cold war order. And the obvious political implication should not be dodged. Conservatism might have been disastrous as a crisis-fighting doctrine, but events since 2012 suggest that the triumph of centrist liberalism was false too. As the remarkable escalation of the debate about inequality in the United States has starkly exposed, centrist liberals struggle to give convincing answers for the long-term problems of modern capitalist democracy. The crisis added to those preexisting tensions of increasing inequality and disenfranchisement, and the dramatic crisis-fighting measures adopted since 2008, for all their short-term effectiveness, have their own, negative side effects.

One chart to impress people with what you learned from the bookThe US Federal Reserve’s liquidity operations feature heavily in Tooze’s narrative of the mitigation of the crisis. Ten years ago, as interbank and wholesale markets closed, there was severe pressure on dollar-funding markets. This is when the Fed made itself the lender of last resort for the world. “It was historically unprecedented, spectacular in scale, and almost entirely unheralded,” Tooze writes.

Trillions of dollars were provided through various money-market transactions. One key operation was currency swap lines, where the Fed loans dollars out to other countries’ central banks in exchange for those banks’ currency to be repaid later with interest. They were developed in the 1960s but went out of use after about a decade (though they returned briefly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001). Currency swap lines were revived in 2007 between the Fed and global central banks to give loans of dollars to foreign banks. These loans, though by now repaid in full, show how much extra funding was desperately needed by Europe at the time. By September 2010, total lending and repayment on the swap facilities came to $10 trillion.




To: THE ANT who wrote (966)8/21/2018 8:25:01 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13801
 
Pimco Says Period of Low Interest Rates Is Here to Stay

bloomberg.com



To: THE ANT who wrote (966)10/8/2018 4:48:41 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13801
 
The end of the soft alternativism. Soft alternativism is exemplified by the likes of Clinton, Tony Blair and Obama.

We still have Justin Trudeau and Macron as its example.

The world was tending to accommodative and everybody was happy. No confrontation. In fact the whole world was going Canadian. Political correcteness ruled.

In the emerging markets the soft alternativism gave raise to left leaning governments.

The soft alternativism years enabled China to take advantage of that accommodative situation to grow and exercise its power. Bought support for countries to cut relations with Taiwan and selectively support left leaning governments in the emerging markets.

That situation was not going to endure for several reasons.

The advanced countries were getting old and older and this demographic trend has had an impact that the vast majoirty is yet to recognize. Vladimir Putin came out and his disourse is: I a not here to make anyone happy. I am here to represent the people of Russia.

People started realizing that, this is what a leader of a government should do. Not to accommodate to everyone.

Fed for two decades a diet of soft alternativism, the electronic media, the academia and the popular press reacted. Fascism!

Once that -the end of soft alternativism- was put in motion, the pendulum started swinging in the opposite direction.

As the soft alternativism started crumbling, the US was not going to go Swedish. The US had to stand up and say:I a not here to make anyone happy. I am here to represent the American people.




To: THE ANT who wrote (966)10/18/2018 7:40:36 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13801
 
Still some upside for investors in Brazil before Bolsonaro era

As a manager, the presidential election frontrunner remains an unknown quantity

JOSEPH LEAHY

In Brazil this month, the only people having a better time than supporters of presidential election frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro are shareholders of local gunmaker Taurus.

Taurus stock has more than tripled in price over the past month as the fiery far-right former army captain, who favours liberating gun ownership to combat Brazil’s high rates of violent crime, rose to win the first round of the election on October 7.

Laughable!

No word on Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras (PBR) Climbing the Ladder Up 46.34% For Month
baycityobserver.com

With polls indicating a strong victory in the second round on October 28 for Mr Bolsonaro, investors are flocking to Taurus shares, ignoring the candidate’s pledges to break the company’s hold on supplying weapons to Brazil’s security forces amid criticism over the quality of its weapons.

The bullishness over Taurus is reflected in the wider market as investors are betting that Mr Bolsonaro will honour his pledges to combine social conservatism with liberal economic policies. Over the past month, the benchmark Ibovespa index has gained about 12 per cent while the currency, the real, has strengthened about 10 per cent against the dollar.



Underwriting Mr Bolsonaro’s market-friendly stance is his economic adviser, University of Chicago-trained investor Paulo Guedes. The financier’s promises include a massive privatisation programme of Brazil’s state-owned enterprises to reduce public debt.

He has also pledged fiscal reforms, such as an overhaul of the country’s pension programme, to cut the budget deficit. Brazil's front-runner Jair Bolsonaro — 10 key facts

The strength of Mr Bolsonaro’s victory in the first round, in which he fell just short of a majority, has heartened investors who were earlier worried that his rival, Fernando Haddad of the leftist Workers’ Party, or PT, might stand a chance. Known for its interventionism in the economy, markets would view a return of the PT as catastrophic.

But with the PT apparently tamed and markets already significantly higher, investors face a question: should they sell on the fact of a Bolsonaro final victory in the second round or wait for further upside?

Most analysts believe there remains some room for further modest gains. Ronaldo Patah, chief investment officer for Brazil at UBS Global Wealth Management, said he had a target for the real of R$3.60 to the dollar over the next three months, with the possibility it could “overshoot” to R$3.50 before gradually weakening to R$3.80 as monetary policy tightens offshore.

Equities are still trading at slightly below their historical average in terms of price/earnings. There could be 10 per cent upside if the market begins to factor in faster economic growth for next year of about 2.5 per cent, he said.

In terms of sovereign risk, five-year credit default swaps, which have already tightened from 281.4 basis points to 210.9 over the past month, could fall a further 30-50bp.

Tellingly, however, the most risky asset class is domestic bonds, with the short-end of the curve already factoring in most of the potential gains. This is because they are the most exposed to what is expected to be the first real test of Mr Bolsonaro’s resolve on economic issues — whether or not he will push through a strong pension reform and strengthen Brazil’s precarious fiscal position.

Markets expect him to expend his fresh political capital in the first year on the issue. Yet, the former congressman, who confesses little knowledge of the economy, is prevaricating, saying he wanted to pass a reform different from that of current president Michel Temer, who lacked the support to have his proposals passed in congress this year. “We can’t penalise those who have already acquired rights,” he said this week.

He has also backed away from the privatisation of electricity generation assets, sending shares of state-run market leader Eletrobras gyrating.

Investors for now are giving him the benefit of the doubt. With campaigning still under way, talking about unpopular pension reforms could cost him votes.

Yet Mr Bolsonaro is also untested in government. In nearly 28 years in congress, he passed few pieces of legislation and has never held an executive position, such as state governor or even city mayor. (Trump has never had a government position!) As a manager, he remains an unknown quantity. That is why some investors may opt to take profit on his likely victory on October 28.

They could take their cue from gunmaker Taurus. The company is using the astronomical rise in its share price for a bonus share offer aimed at reducing its debt.

joe.leahy@ft.com



To: THE ANT who wrote (966)10/25/2018 2:20:50 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13801
 
Prudential Singapore first to scrap retirement age

As life expectancy in Singapore continues to rise, Prudential is giving its employees the option to work beyond the statutory retirement age of 62. The move gives Prudential’s 1,100 employees the option to have extended careers, so they can fulfil their personal and financial aspirations.

by Nurhuda Syed24 Oct 2018

HR leaders have been urged by Deputy PM Tharman Shanmugaratnam to stop their “unstated discrimination” against older workers looking for jobs.

Have you ever asked a job applicant how old they are? If you have, you might be breaking the law. A leading Singapore employment lawyer looks at which interview questions could land you in hot water.

Prudential Singapore (Prudential) is the first financial institution here to scrap the official retirement age.

As life expectancy in Singapore continues to rise, Prudential is giving its employees the option to work beyond the statutory retirement age of 62. The move gives Prudential’s 1,100 employees the option to have extended careers, so they can fulfil their personal and financial aspirations.

Prudential Singapore’s CEO Wilf Blackburn said the company recognised that retirement at 62 may no longer make sense for an ageing population that has an average lifespan of 83.1 years and which is edging towards 100.

“If we stop work at 62, we are looking at nearly 40 years of retirement if we live to 100,” Blackburn said. “Such a long retirement period may pose financial challenges should you outlive your savings. A prolonged period of inactivity may also lead to health and social problems.

“With this in mind, we decided to scrap the retirement age so that our employees can continue to work in Prudential for as long as they are able to perform their jobs well. We want to empower them to decide when they want to retire, or if they wish to retire at all, rather than specify a work expiry date.”

The new retirement policy, which came into effect on 1 October 2018, was introduced on the back of the insurer’s Ready for 100 report which explores the readiness and aspirations of Singapore residents to live to 100.

The report revealed that one in two residents were not financially ready to live to 100. This is despite Singaporeans being ardent savers and having strong safety nets in the country’s Central Provident Fund (CPF).

Additionally, the report showed that most Singapore residents in fact do want to continue working. Only 4% of the 1,214 respondents surveyed indicated they want to retire as soon as possible, while 64% of the group aged 55 to 64 said they still enjoy their work.

Currently, Prudential has six employees aged 62 and above who are eligible for re-employment in the next five years. With the scrapping of the retirement age, they can stay on in their jobs and be entitled to the same benefits including medical, as all employees while drawing the same salary as before. They will still receive a retirement payout any time they choose to leave their jobs.

Prudential’s latest move to eliminate the retirement age is in line with Singapore’s ambition to leverage its rapidly-ageing workforce. In May this year, Manpower Minister Josephine Teo announced a new work group to address Singapore’s retirement and re-employment age and review the longer-term relevance of these policies.

“There is a lot that businesses can gain by tapping on the experience and knowledge of more mature employees,” Blackburn said.

“At Prudential, we see this group of employees as valuable assets and are committed to support them in extending their productive years by offering them re-skilling opportunities and flexible work schedules as we scrap the retirement age.”

Related stories:



To: THE ANT who wrote (966)12/21/2018 12:29:55 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13801
 
Sell everything – but look at emerging markets

Emerging markets, meanwhile, are no riskier than the S&P 500. The Chart of the Day below shows the cost of hedging EEM in the options market vs. the cost of hedging the S&P 500. That’s the implied volatility on EEM options vs. the VIX index of S&P 500 options. So: double the cash flow for the price, at the same level of risk.



Wednesday’s returns by country are shown below. Oil-dependent Russia was the worst, Brazil with a new free-market government is the best.

Russia-4.6%
Nigeria-0.6%
China-0.1%
S.Africa0.0%
Pakistan0.1%
Poland0.6%
Non-Japan Asia0.6%
Peru0.7%
Taiwan0.9%
EM Index1.0%
Indonesia1.1%
Malaysia1.1%
S.Korea1.2%
Turkey1.5%
Thailand1.6%
India2.0%
Philippines2.1%
Mexico2.1%
Brazil2.2%



To: THE ANT who wrote (966)4/22/2019 2:55:04 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 13801
 
Most people look forward to retirement, a reward for decades of hard work. But like many other pleasures, it may be bad for your health. It may even kill you.

The Case Against Early Retirement

Many people dream of leaving the office as soon as they can. But the evidence suggests a lot of downsides. It may be time to rethink those dreams.

By Richard W. Johnson

Updated April 21, 2019 10:40 p.m. ET

Most people look forward to retirement, a reward for decades of hard work. But like many other pleasures, it may be bad for your health. It may even kill you.

How can that be? How can working longer be good for your health? After all, many people dream of—and plan for—retiring early. Strenuous, stressful work can wear people down and damage their health. On the other hand, retirees can relax and reinvigorate themselves. They have time to follow their passions and pursue activities that enrich their lives.

But in our rush to leave the office, we don’t realize that retirement also has a downside, especially over the long term. Many retirees indulge in unhealthy behaviors. They become sedentary and watch too much television. They eat too much. They drink too much. They smoke too much. Without the purpose of fulfilling work, retirees can feel adrift and become depressed. Without the camaraderie of their co-workers, retirees risk becoming socially isolated. Without the intellectual stimulation that work can provide, retirement can accelerate cognitive decline.

The problem for researchers is measuring which is the more powerful force—the joys of a more leisurely life or the downsides. An experimental study, in which researchers randomly force some workers to retire and others to remain in the labor force, would provide the best evidence, but that kind of experiment is impossible.

Instead, researchers have turned to statistical models that rely on factors that affect work but are unrelated to health—like Social Security eligibility ages, tax breaks for older workers or mandatory retirement rules. Researchers then can determine how health changes when these milestones are reached.

The result: Many of these studies clearly show that health problems intensify after workers qualify for retirement benefits and abate after policies encouraging work are introduced.

When you’re 62

Consider a 2018 study by Maria Fitzpatrick at Cornell University and Timothy Moore at the University of Melbourne, which used administrative data covering the entire U.S. adult population to examine how mortality rates change at age 62, when people can first begin collecting Social Security retirement benefits. After all, death is the definitive indicator of poor physical health, which itself is difficult to measure.

Dr. Fitzpatrick and Dr. Moore found that men are 2% more likely to die in the month they turn 62 than in the previous month.
This mortality surge is driven largely by increases in deaths from lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and risk factors for these conditions include smoking and lack of physical activity—both of which become more common when people retire.

Mortality rates at age 62 increase less for women than men, and the relationship is not as clear-cut, perhaps because age-62 mortality is much lower for women.

More evidence comes from looking at a Dutch policy change in 2009, which introduced a tax break for older workers. It provided workers a 5% bonus at age 62, a 7% bonus at 63, and a 10% bonus at 64. These incentives, which were eliminated in 2013, spurred work by men ages 62 to 64, and had smaller effects on women. Using this temporary policy innovation as a type of social experiment, Alice Zulkarnain and Matthew Rutledge at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College concluded that delaying retirement reduced the five-year mortality risk for men in their early 60s by 32%. As in the U.S. study, the impact was smaller for women.

The evidence also suggests that retirement can accelerate cognitive decline. The mental exercise that work provides seems to keep people sharp.

Learning new skills seems particularly important. By establishing “cognitive reserves,” such activities may help the brain become more adaptable and better compensate for age-related erosion in cognitive ability.

Economists Susann Rohwedder and Robert Willis used data spanning the U.S., England and 11 European countries to show that retirement significantly reduces cognitive function. When people retire, they typically get less mental exercise, because work activities are generally more cognitively stimulating than home activities.

Retirees may routinely play bridge or do crossword puzzles, but that isn’t as intellectually challenging as many jobs. A 2014 study of half a million retired self-employed workers in France found that dementia was significantly less common among those who retired later than those who retired earlier.

The social network
Another risk for retirees is that leaving the workforce can cause them to be socially isolated. Most workers interact extensively with their colleagues, providing camaraderie and often social support. Although you would think that retirement provides people with additional time to nurture social ties, Eleonora Patacchini at Cornell University and Gary Engelhardt at Syracuse University found that retirement shrinks social networks and the frequency of social interactions. The impact is especially large for women and college graduates. Smaller social networks and social isolation tend to reduce life satisfaction and impair physical and mental health.

It’s important to point out that a paying job isn’t always necessary to reap the health benefits of work. About one-third of Americans age 55 and older regularly volunteer for community groups and other organizations. Such unpaid activities can involve levels of physical, cognitive and social engagement similar to those in paid employment. Many studies, including a 2019 evaluation of the Foster Grandparent and Senior Companion programs, find that unpaid work, like paid work, reduces depression and loneliness and improves life satisfaction for older adults.

These studies aren’t definitive. More research is needed to establish the pathways through which retirement affects health, and to identify which types of workers are most affected. For example, the health benefits of work aren’t generally shared by people with especially stressful, boring or physically demanding jobs. Workers in blue-collar jobs, for instance, accumulate health problems more rapidly as they age than workers in less physical jobs and usually experience health gains when they retire.

Financial fitness

Retirement, meanwhile, doesn’t just threaten the physical and emotional well-being of people. In fact, perhaps the biggest downside of retirement is financial. Social Security replaces only about 40% of a typical paycheck. Employer pensions are much less common today than in the past, and relatively few people have saved enough in 401(k)s or elsewhere to guarantee a financially secure old age.

By staying on the job, workers can redeem their retirement prospects. Workers who extend their careers can save part of their additional earnings for retirement, and they can accumulate more Social Security credits. What’s more, retirement savings don’t have to last as long when workers delay retirement.

My Urban Institute colleagues Barbara Butrica, Karen Smith and Eugene Steuerle have estimated that an additional year of work raises future annual retirement income by 9%, on average. The financial benefits from continued work are even greater for low-income workers because Social Security’s progressive benefit formula replaces a higher share of earnings for low-wage workers than high-wage workers. The bottom fifth of earners gain, on average, 16% by working an additional year.

The good news is that many older Americans are working longer. For much of the second half of the 20th century, the average retirement age for men declined steadily, as expanded employer pensions and the introduction of Medicare and early Social Security benefits made early retirement increasingly affordable. Between 1950 and 1993, the share of 65-year-old men participating in the labor force plunged from 69% to 28%. But the trend then reversed, in response to declines in employer pensions and employer-provided retiree health insurance, increases in older adults’ educational attainment and changes in Social Security rules. By last year, the participation rate for 65-year-old men had rebounded to 46%.

The trends differ somewhat for women, reflecting changing norms about women’s work. Between 1950 and 1993, the participation rate for 65-year-old women edged up 5 percentage points, to 21%, as women of all ages moved into the labor force. The participation rate then surged to 35% in 2018.

Despite these gains, obstacles to work at older ages remain. One is psychological: Many people feel they should retire by a certain age (or earlier), because that is the way it has always been. We should be encouraging older workers to stay on the job for their own health.

What’s more, for many older workers the decision to leave a job is not their own. Instead, too many are pushed out of their jobs before they are ready to retire, and end up struggling to find new work with comparable pay. Employers often seem reluctant to hire older workers, because of fears that they are too expensive, lack up-to-date skills, or will retire before employers can recoup the cost of hiring and training them.

Various policy changes could increase older workers’ employment. Federal law prohibiting age discrimination in the workplace could be strengthened after a 2009 Supreme Court decision made discrimination more difficult to prove. We could revamp our approach to education and training to prioritize lifelong learning so older workers can keep their skills up to date. And we could invest more in programs and benefits for older unemployed workers, who generally have trouble finding jobs and often stop looking.

By enabling more older workers to stay on the job, these reforms could benefit companies facing shortages of skilled workers. But it could do more than that. It could also save lives.

Dr. Johnson is the director of the program on retirement policy at the Urban Institute. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com.



wsj.com



To: THE ANT who wrote (966)6/25/2019 4:21:44 AM
From: elmatador2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Elroy Jetson
Horgad

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13801
 
Causes of deaths in the US
What people search in Google, what the NYT and the Guardian covers publishes