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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (21222)	8/19/2018 6:48:47 PM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar roguedolphin Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

USD Big Picture Update--- YEN and NiKKEI as well. It's really quite simple Here is the 45 year Monthly chart of the $USD index, and as you can see we this week's high hit the 50% retracement of the Bear Market Move in the USD from July 5th high of 121.21 in 2001 all the way down to the low of 71.33 on april 23rd 2008. *A TIME move of exactly 2484 days which is 6 years, 9 months and 18 days* we then experienced a very choppy volatile period from the 2008 low into a near double bottom in 2011 and then began a sluggish uptrend that became very explosive and impulse like advance with the April 2014 low of 78.93.. we boomed upt to 100.71 on 3/17/15 ( which I commented on 3/18/15 : The USD. Had a potential to have an medium term top to longer term top when the $USD registered it a reading of $100.71 yesterday. It is super over extended over it's 200 DMA and 50 WMA.) Message 29989344 we then had an A-B-C correction and reached a major top which was a .618 retracement of the entire decline from the 2001 to 2008 bear market. the top was on Jan 23 2017 @ 103.82 A TIME CYCLE move of 3197 days which is exactly 8 years, 9 months and 0 days. so the ratio between the decline and the advance to the jan 23 2017 high of 103.83 was a ..7769 Fibonacci Time Ratio, splitting the difference for those who feel it is .7639 & others who feel it is .7861 Notice that the USD coming the 1/23/17 dropped straight down to the 200 Month Moving average where it caught rock solid support Now as we Examine 25 YEAR MONTHLY USD Chart, we can again see additionally that the decline from the 01/23/2017 high of 103.8 down to the 02/16/2018 low of 88.15 in addition to hitting the 200 month MA, we has an extreme Bollinger Band % low...... in fact it was the lowest since late 2007 as we were approaching the terminal 2008 low., the only previous 2 lows in the BB % were the initial decline off the 2001 decline, and the major low at 80.43 in 1995. since then we have moved up and as you can see the USD received some resistance by a .236 retracement and rode upt the rising 50 Month MA and took out the resistance of the 21 Month MA . At the Highs of this past week , the technical trader know it has been a very fast move up and that we have hit 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2001 high and the April 23 2008 low... so we will have some back and filling to do... THE 35 YEAR USD/JPY MONTHLY CHART --- SHOWS A VERY TIGHT COIL..... notice how tight the Bollinger band range is extremely narrow , so we should expect a breakout... Let's see if the PMO can generate a buy signal... THE 48 YEAR MONTHLY NIKKEI AVERAGE ---- shows how the Japanese market had very nicely followed it's bull trend channel up and hit previous resistance as well as Fibonacci resistance.... It will be quite pivotal to all Japanese assets, the Currency, Stocks and JGB's, what the Bank of Japan does as they appear to be Lazarus arising from the dead ..... following the FED's lead, and leaving Negative Interest rates and endless QE, ZIRP etc behind...... we shall see stay tuned.... Message 31727138 JJP