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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tokyo VD who wrote (1729)1/15/1998 1:34:00 PM
From: Anaxagoras  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7041
 
Hi Tokyo,

<<When do expect ZONA/SGP to file an NDA? When will ZONA receive a patent for Vasomax?>>

Not for several months. In fact, there are several serious risks with this stock. One of the legitimate risks IMO (forget about all this ridiculous scam/fraud/gigantic con stuff)is that ZONA languishes while SGP goofs around with the NDA. In fact, I've heard from unreliable sources <gg> that SGP has the reputation for letting some of their protegee companies hang out in Limbo and may not even get around to filing an NDA. In any case, it is standard with these things to take time, a lot more time than biotech investors usually want. The patent issue is another matter- this should be now, or better yet, yesterday. On the conference call I can't remember the specific adjectives used with regard to the second patent, but it was clear that they expected it to be granted at any time. Their patent attorneys are said to be among the best, FWIW, and they didn't anticipate any problems with its approval. But again, these things take time as well.

<<Since you don't believe there is any more downside in the stock price, what would convince you that it is time to sell?>>

Whoa, wait a minute- there's big-time downside risk- but not form the quarters that have been suggested (of course I may be wildly mistaken). And I believe there is more of a chance to the upside (yeah, I'm nuts). The event that would crater the stock is FDA rejection, naturally. Aside from that, there is also further downside risk if the NDA filing process drags on and on for, say, more than a year. But you are correct, I believe, that there is little near term downside risk. As for when to sell, I haven't worked that out yet- as I said, for myslef the decision is somewhat arbitrary since I will probably need to pull the funds for a short I anticipate placing in the next few days. But if you're a trader, I think a good short term sell target might be around $19ish where there might be a battle between longs and shorts.

All this in my often incorrect opinion,
Anaxagoras