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To: i-node who wrote (92714)	9/5/2018 1:22:26 AM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 365869

" it could be spurious correlation. Or a lurking variable." The lurking variable is the temperature. Increased water temps cause more shark attacks, and increased land temps result in an increase in ice cream consumption. Experts believe global heat wave will increase shark attacks New York Post-Aug 7, 2018 Global Ice Cream Market\| Lavu Nov 29, 2017 - The ice cream industry is hot and is predicted to keep heating up over the next five years.Market research firm the IMARC Group spent The next five years will be 'anomalously warm,' scientists predict - The ... Aug 14, 2018 -

To: i-node who wrote (92714)	9/5/2018 11:12:23 AM
From: combjelly	1 Recommendation Recommended By bentway Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 365869

In no case does correlation between two variables imply a causal relationship. Does it prove it? It depends. For one, if the relationship holds up over time, that is compelling. if there is some mechanism that links the two, then yes. If ice cream consumption actually correlated with shark attacks, that should get you attention. If it holds up over time, then you look for a mechanism that links the two. Say ice cream consumption goes up in the summer and people tend to go in the water during the summer and that leads to more shark attacks. In this case, there is a causal relationship, but the cause is it being summer. Likewise with global warming and CO2 emissions. Is there a mechanism that links the two? In this case yes. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and it has been proven to increase the retention of energy in a system that includes it. Like our atmosphere. So your statement, if not false, is as least incomplete.