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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (81015)	9/8/2018 6:10:19 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	3 Recommendations Recommended By bigchad Return to Sender Sam Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95521

However, on the same date, Baird has raised a "red flag" on Micron. benzinga.com

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (81015)	9/8/2018 7:03:43 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95521

Isn't "further upside" a phrase you use about a stock making new highs...

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (81015)	9/8/2018 8:17:05 PM
From: bigchad	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sam Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95521

Here's the whole note... Micron Technology Overweight MU, MU US 8th Consecutive Positive Revision to Global Memory Forecast on Better DRAM Pricing Outlook - ALERT Price: $49.54 05 Sep 2018 bill.peterson@jpmchase.com Anthony Yu (1-415) 315-6753 anthony.yu@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Our global research team published the eighth consecutive positive revision to J.P. Morgan’s Global Memory Model earlier today taking up 2018/2019 revenue expectations on better than previously anticipated ASP declines in DRAM, which continues to be the profitability/free cash flow driver for Micron. Taking into account rational capacity expansion, which has been recently reflected in 2H18 DRAM/NAND industry capacity rationalization, and solid manufacturing and cost execution by the Micron team, we continue to see further upside in Overweight-rated MU. ? Eighth consecutive positive revision to our Global Memory Model, led by better DRAM pricing trends versus prior model. Earlier today, our global research team updatedJPM’s Global Memory Model that points to continued upside in memory revenues in 2018 and 2019 compared to the prior revision (June 2018), with the latest revision indicating higher memory industry revenue estimates in 2018 and 2019, as a result of higher DRAM revenues (new revision for DRAM revenues is 4% higher than the prior model in both years) on improved pricing trends. Looking at the near-term (2Q18 through 1Q19 estimated), DRAM industry revenues per quarter were revised higher by 5%-9% and ASP changes over that timeframe are now ~10% better compared to the prior model update. The upward revision is the eighth consecutive positive revision that we believe to be a positive indicator of near-/mid-term (next 2-3 quarters) financialperformance for Micron. ? Supply side fundamentals remain disciplined as competitors take a rational approach to investments (reflected in 2H18 DRAM/NAND capacity rationalization as seen by semicap companies)with more focus on sustainability of profitability and free cash flow generation. We recently updated our semiconductor capex outlook that takes into account timing-related changes to equipment shipments (especially DRAM pushouts by Samsungfrom 2H18 into next year). Our memory model indicates capital expenditures as a percent of revenues remains on track to come in below the average of the past 15 years in 2018 (Table 1). We believe industry participants continue to focus on profitability and FCF generation that we expect to sustain the strong memory profitability environment. ? Sustainability of memory profitability bodes well for the semicap equipment suppliers. We believe the complexity increases on next-generation DRAM and NAND manufacturing architectures and rising equipment spend per wafer is providing even more incentive to the memory suppliers to drive sustainably higher levels of profitability in order to continue to fund their next generation manufacturing roadmaps and remain competitive. Sustainability of memory profitability should drive sustainability of equipment spending – and this is supportive ofour positive view on the semicap equipment sector. ? Remain OW Micron. We see further upside in MU shares as the team is executing well in an overall constructive S/D memory environment. We continue to believe memory suppliers are focused on profitability and not market share and any nearterm supply/demand imbalance would likely be quickly mitigated.