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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Esvida who wrote (942)	1/15/1998 5:51:00 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

<< Now, I just wish that the immigration policy would be much more open so that Japanese people can move freely to America. I think Japanese, even if after they get a degree from the US, most of them voluntarily go back, not because they have to, but because they choose to. They can stay like other foreign students, get a job, and change the visa, but most of them choose not to. Their honor of the nationality, the urge to make their own country stronger, etc. just overcome their own personal interest. I think this is one aspect of the so-called Asain culture (maybe I should say Eastern Asian culture, because Southern Asia (India) has completely different culture, and the same old civilization). It is a shame for me to admit that, most of Chinese who are studying in the US do not have the same strong honor of nationality, or maybe just not as patriotic as most of Japanese. Of course, there are more Chinese brainpower now going back to China, but in terms of percentage, it is not that significant. Geographic environment of Japan and Korea contributes a lot to their cohesiveness as a nation, I think.

To: Esvida who wrote (942)	1/16/1998 8:16:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

With global competition heated up by these Asian devaluations, in the new pardigm governments, will I believe come to recognize that intellectual capital is the "new gold" of the 21st centruy. In the 21st century governments everywhere will attempt to keep what they have (ie. their own artists, techies, etc.). Unfortunately, for 3/4th's of the world the winners here will be those countries that have gone down the road towards open societies that court "intellectual immigrants". The winners in the 21st century will be those countries with open societies and open banking systems and these countries will be the big winners in the global competiton for human capital in the third mellenium. In a conversation Craig (#946) and Mohan(#952)about StratFor's predictions of South American growth rates and Asian growth rates... it seems to me that it is clear now that the Asian "crisis" is a liquidity crisis brought on by (basically)cronyism and corruption fosterd by indigenous authoritarian governments. Is that right? My father was a Latin American businessman from the 1930's onward. I know of, and was raised with the feeling that Latin America's sucked in corruption with their first milk... with "the mordida" a bite on every business transaction. 20%-30% is the norm. My colleague South American historians, who are involved in deals, normally pay the 20-30% going rate to do deals in South America when they do deals. Today! If anyone thinks there is "transparency" in South America you are dreaming. Dream on. In the question of Asia versus South America I think the worm turns here on on growth rates. That comes down to how vibrant South America is versus Asia. Personally, I think these domestic cash crunches and the concomitant competitive Asian currency devaluations that we are seeing here will have a profound effect on the way government permits business to practice in Asia. IN THE SHORT TERM WE WILL SEE: (a) the bankruptcy of a lot of companies: (b) then, governments will see that they have almost killed off the gold goose and they will let business become more transparent: (c) the survivor business in these countries will be hellaciously competitive. Do you think the US will be competitive with these countries? Do you think South America with it's 30% tax of corruption every business transaction will be competitive? Thomas thanks for your thoughts on CityCorp. I thinkk you are almost right. YOu might think about this. If they do have to write off the Asian debts the hit is to their equity base because I see government, at least in the US, unwilling to go to the mat for these banks the third time in ten years. (S&L, the South America debt being the first two times) You then go back to a negative equity position in these banks. Will John Templeton who advises Prince Walid tell him to sell CityCorp? Hmmm.