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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Esvida who wrote (2787)	1/15/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Esvida	Respond to of 6565

About earning est for next year I came up with 1.92 with the assumptions: -same tax rate for the year at 27% -same number of shares as of 4th quarter 97 -5% increase in expenses (r&d and general) -7% increase in revenue (according to Techie, the co expects 7 to 10%) -use 410M for 1998 co of goods sold based on the 4th quarter-to-quarter and annual year-to-year number After listening to the call, I say that 1.92 is a rather good number assuming that things will work out to the company's expectations. Actually the projected 7% growth in revenue was more for Q1 and/or probably Q2. The year-to-year for the whole year will be higher than that. In my calculation, I neglected the interest earned/expense since I did not know how it would change wrt the additional cash to the balance sheet. So, if the higher revenue (than the 7% projected for the whole year above) results in higher profit which can be used to offset any interest expense, the number above will be the likely number. It also is not the highest est versus the analysts and is not too far up from the current consensus for 98. There is enough room to even get more positive surprises from 1.92. Pricewise, John Stockman's number will probably work out. Short of a bottom falling out of Asia, I still think the water fall in Nov will be reversed by end of Jan. A side bonus for me was that I had the chance to hear Kurlak's voice for the first time. My nightmares will be more real with his voice in it. :) -Al