To: Snowman who wrote (24727 ) 1/16/1998 12:57:00 AM From: Steve Redding Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 30240
This is a TA perspective from an amateur. (Myself) Hopefully this will not offend anyone. I still own my shares of this company at a loss and I have very little faith in the management. I think this confirms that I am an amateur. Using a pencil and ruler chart I see a long term downtrend (obviously) which gives me a line from the high in late May of 1996 (about $7) through the high on January 6, 1998 ($1.65). Between those points, the downtrend line has been touched 8 to 10 times. The more times a trendline is touched the more that line is confirmed. According to the book recommended by our TA guru, Mr. Smith, the price must close 3% above that trendline with heavy volume to indicate a possible breakout. At no time up to now did we close above that line by 3%. If the trend continues, the price should hit $1 on or before the third week of March. Of course it could fall below $1 at any time before then but the trendline hits $1 at that time. Today the trendline sits at $1.50 so to confirm a possible breakout we would have to see a closing price of $1.545 with heavy volume. Using a few technical indicators, my read is as follows. Bollinger bands are wide but starting to narrow. The 50 day moving average is about $1.60 and the 200 day moving average is at $2.15 so we are well below those. RSI is at 40 but trending up. Anything above 50 is bullish. Stochastics are flat and very low. Moneyflow is very low (30) but moved up today. MACD is bearish but converging. Williams% is very low (-70) but inching up. Accumulation/Distribution is still very high but has leveled off. My final thoughts are that there is nothing that I read in the charts that indicate anyone should be involved in this stock unless you are able to short it. If I would have listened to my teacher, Mr. Smith, or followed the rules of the book that he recommended, I would not be in this stock today. Other than my ignorance with this stock, his tutelage has enabled me to do quite well in my first year of investing and reading charts. Thank you, Pat. Steve Redding P.S. The book I use is Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee. It has been mentioned on this and many other threads before. It teaches about basic charting with a pencil and ruler.