Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (33360)	1/16/1998 1:47:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald; RE:" Import / Export " ...Our ships from Asia were 90-100% full, but on the export side from the US to Asia, they were only 50-60% full with the majority of the cargo consisting of waste paper, tin plate, metal scrap, logs, lumber, cheap chemicals, hides, and only about 5-10% of the cargo was high priced goods like machinery. Im just not sure that the impact of the Asian Flu is as great as many feel it will be. Yes - I remember seeing this (for many years) in the big port at Long Beach in Southern California, and at Oakland across the Bay from where I live (in the States). But I beg to differ with you regarding your conclusion, Donald. From your own observation, the effect will be a serious deflation of commodity prices: recycling will be hurt, bad - primary metals, FPP.X, XOI.X and CEX.X are fundamentally struck. Japan and the Asian Tigers have been functioning as an industrial colony of the United States for many years - Americans "assemble" but no one really wants to go back to the factory ethic - people in the US want to work in offices. And thank goodness that they do feel this way - factories (as opposed to assembly plants) suck. Everything has fundamentally changed - denial is probably part of the process. The big question for Americans is what will happen to wages and/or employment when prices of commodities start to go down, down, down. I really feel for the recycling / alternative energy movement, as I am personally involved in that; there's simply too much primary capacity. BTW, the first hit was not Asia, but Russia - the C.I.S. When they began to dump oil and metals for cash, everything in the EU changed; real unemployment in their industrial sector is probably close to 30 % over here. I see BTK.X / DRG.X as the next wave after SOX.X / TCX.X - but life cycles take a long time to run. Thank goodness for the internet ! I expect Real Estate deflation to be the nails in the coffin. -Steve