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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: prashanth who wrote (14724)	1/16/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

prashant, I'm glad you asked, because I looked it up and learned something. Both companies are 86% owned by institutions. Both had no or positive surprises the last two quarters. YE mean high low revision last 30 days NVLS 12/97 2.16 2.20 2.13 none NVLS 12/98 2.77 3.15 2.40 -0.12 KLAC 6/98 2.38 2.50 2.20 -0.06 KLAC 6/99 2.80 3.15 2.40 -0.13 Data source:Zacks GM PS: Forbes has an article stating that both, analysts and economists, usually are too optimistic in their earnings estimates. Also, estimates are usually reduced by YE.

To: prashanth who wrote (14724)	1/16/1998 9:47:00 AM
From: Teri Skogerboe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Prashanth, Some numbers on AMAT, KLAC, NVLS FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. 01/12/98 Industry: Semiconductr SIC: 3559 Latest Price: $28.06 1998 P/E: 14.3 Analyst Recommendation: 2.0 QTR QTR FY FY Jan 98 Apr 98 Oct 98 Oct 99 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.50 0.50 1.96 2.42 Number of Brokers 23 22 23 15 Median 0.51 0.50 1.90 2.45 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.03 0.15 0.19 Current High 0.52 0.55 2.20 2.80 Current Low 0.42 0.42 1.69 2.12 Year Ago EPS 0.24A 0.27A 1.39A 1.96 Current vs. Year Ago Change 108% 85% 41% 23% Report Date wk/Feb 11 wk/May 13 wk/Nov 20 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Up Revisions last 30 days 0 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 7 days 1 1 2 0 Down Revisions last 30 days 2 6 8 3 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.50 0.50 1.96 2.42 7-days ago Mean 0.50 0.50 1.98 2.44 30-days ago Mean 0.51 0.52 2.09 2.49 60-days ago Mean 0.49 0.51 2.13 2.62 90-days ago Mean 0.25 0.52 2.15 1.36 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS Industry - Semiconduct 29.02 30.03 126.05 153.98 Current vs. Year Ago Change 1% -5% 5% 22% Sector - TECHNOLOGY 10.30 9.16 40.67 50.44 Current vs. Year Ago Change 10% 10% 17% 24% WSJ/DJ US Index 11.15 10.95 46.69 55.82 Current vs. Year Ago Change 8% 10% 12% 20% Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ P/E on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 14.4 18.15 19.95 18.26 PEG on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 0.58 0.92 1.10 1.46 RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES Current Mean 2.0 Next 5 yrs - Median 25% Number of Brokers 22 Number of Brokers 6 Industry Recommendation: 2.2 Industry Growth Rate: 20% 7-days ago Mean 2.0 Next 5 yrs - High 25% 30-days ago Mean 1.9 Next 5 yrs - Low 15% 60-days ago Mean 1.6 Last 5 Years 64% 90-days ago Mean 1.6 Diff. from Industry +0.2 Rel. to Industry 1.3 Diff. from Sector +0.0 Rel. to Sector 1.4 Diff. from WSJ/DJ US +0.2 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 2.0 Transmitted: 01/13/98 08:44 (E_AMAT) ----- FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES KLAC KLA-Tencor 01/12/98 Industry: Semiconductr SIC: 3827 Latest Price: $34.25 1998 P/E: 14.4 Analyst Recommendation: 2.1 QTR QTR FY FY Dec 97 Mar 98 Jun 98 Jun 99 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.59 0.61 2.38 2.81 Number of Brokers 17 16 17 16 Median 0.59 0.62 2.40 2.86 Standard Deviation 0.01 0.04 0.09 0.24 Current High 0.63 0.64 2.50 3.10 Current Low 0.57 0.52 2.20 2.40 Year Ago EPS 0.40A 0.44A 1.78A 2.38 Current vs. Year Ago Change 48% 39% 34% 18% Report Date Jan 20 wk/Apr 15 wk/Jul 29 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Up Revisions last 30 days 0 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 7 days 1 1 1 1 Down Revisions last 30 days 2 6 6 6 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.59 0.61 2.38 2.81 7-days ago Mean 0.60 0.61 2.39 2.81 30-days ago Mean 0.60 0.63 2.45 2.92 60-days ago Mean 0.59 0.63 2.43 2.99 90-days ago Mean 0.56 0.61 2.35 3.03 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS Industry - Semiconduct 29.02 30.03 120.79 148.86 Current vs. Year Ago Change 1% -5% 9% 23% Sector - TECHNOLOGY 10.30 9.16 37.92 47.44 Current vs. Year Ago Change 10% 10% 12% 25% WSJ/DJ US Index 11.15 10.95 45.09 52.62 Current vs. Year Ago Change 8% 10% 11% 17% Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ P/E on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 13.5 18.15 19.95 18.26 PEG on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 0.62 0.92 1.10 1.46 RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES Current Mean 2.1 Next 5 yrs - Median 22% Number of Brokers 17 Number of Brokers 4 Industry Recommendation: 2.2 Industry Growth Rate: 20% 7-days ago Mean 2.1 Next 5 yrs - High 30% 30-days ago Mean 2.1 Next 5 yrs - Low 18% 60-days ago Mean 1.9 Last 5 Years 58% 90-days ago Mean 1.9 Diff. from Industry +0.1 Rel. to Industry 1.1 Diff. from Sector -0.1 Rel. to Sector 1.2 Diff. from WSJ/DJ US +0.1 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 1.8 Transmitted: 01/13/98 08:52 (E_KLAC) ----- FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES NVLS Novellus Systems 01/12/98 Industry: Semiconductr SIC: 3559 Latest Price: $30.00 1997 P/E: 13.9 Analyst Recommendation: 2.4 QTR QTR FY FY Dec 97 Mar 98 Dec 97 Dec 98 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.63 0.66 2.16 2.80 Number of Brokers 16 14 16 16 Median 0.63 0.68 2.16 2.92 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.24 Current High 0.67 0.70 2.20 3.15 Current Low 0.61 0.56 2.13 2.40 Year Ago EPS 0.51A 0.46A 2.85A 2.16 Current vs. Year Ago Change 24% 43% -24% 30% Report Date Jan 19 wk/Apr 14 Jan 19 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Up Revisions last 30 days 0 2 1 1 Down Revisions last 7 days 0 1 0 1 Down Revisions last 30 days 2 3 2 3 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.63 0.66 2.16 2.80 7-days ago Mean 0.63 0.66 2.16 2.83 30-days ago Mean 0.63 0.68 2.17 2.96 60-days ago Mean 0.63 0.69 2.17 3.02 90-days ago Mean 0.63 0.69 2.16 3.04 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS Industry - Semiconduct 29.02 30.03 120.61 135.43 Current vs. Year Ago Change 1% -5% 35% 12% Sector - TECHNOLOGY 10.30 9.16 35.71 43.59 Current vs. Year Ago Change 10% 10% 20% 22% WSJ/DJ US Index 11.15 10.95 42.72 48.83 Current vs. Year Ago Change 8% 10% 11% 14% Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ P/E on 1997 Cal Yr Mean 13.9 20.49 24.37 20.84 PEG on 1997 Cal Yr Mean 0.56 1.03 1.34 1.66 RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES Current Mean 2.4 Next 5 yrs - Median 25% Number of Brokers 16 Number of Brokers 4 Industry Recommendation: 2.2 Industry Growth Rate: 20% 7-days ago Mean 2.4 Next 5 yrs - High 30% 30-days ago Mean 2.2 Next 5 yrs - Low 25% 60-days ago Mean 1.8 Last 5 Years 66% 90-days ago Mean 1.8 Diff. from Industry -0.2 Rel. to Industry 1.3 Diff. from Sector -0.4 Rel. to Sector 1.4 Diff. from WSJ/DJ US -0.2 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 2.0 Transmitted: 01/13/98 08:54 (E_NVLS) -----