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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4655)	1/16/1998 9:23:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 23519

Bigk, I will accept your answer as the definite and final asnlysis statement of the situation.I would JUST like to add that I am sick and tired of physicians, and I am not referring to Padma or Irwin of course, who WITHOUT having ANY data significant long term data in yet, rush to judgement and PR to line their pockets; that makes any future discoveries of theirs suspect at best. TA

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4655)	1/16/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

BigK , I forgot one thing.Your safety of Viagra statement thet it will be determined in few months at the AUA meeting and by the FDA is wrong. I remember the time when drugs were sujected to years 2-4 + of testing just to pick up later side effects. I don't think this is being done with Viagra ( and other drugs, now days ). So I will not buy this " quickie " testing yet if you don't mind, gg. Do I need to pull out the list again: Seldane,Selacryn, Redux, Rezulin,Zomax? (I believe), etc.All found to be effective, approved and then found to cause unacceptable body injury and were withdrawn. TA

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4655)	1/16/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Gene Voss	Respond to of 23519

BigKNY3: Your reference to the fact that many of these same investigators were involved with initial Muse studies proves my point. Study design and patient selection have everything to do with results. My suspicion is that when this product is released real patients will find it to be totally inadequate. Since placebos are effective in greater than 30% of patients in most studies Viagra will be perceived to be marginally effective. Still, the reality will fall far short of the hype. The PDE-5 inhibition is being touted as some mysterious Nobel prize winning discovery. This has served to legitimize the to date unsubstantiated clalims of success. P-N has waffled on his assessment of MUSE and published 69% efficacy in his studies, but verbally blasted the therapy as being only 10% effective this speaks volumes about his veracity and reliabilty. Depending on how the studies are designed virtually any result is possible with any agent. Believe it or not Pfizer, Vivus and all drug companies are after profits which only serves in many cases to get drug approval at any cost. Let's see the published studies for accuracy and design, followed by real world usage and see who dominates this market. GV

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4655)	1/17/1998 4:25:00 PM
From: MissLil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

RE: How effective and safe is Viagra? And what are the best ED stocks to invest in? I am guessing with all the hoopla that Pfizer feels that they have reasonably good data and that they are anticipating approval by the FDA. The FDA tends to approve drugs close to the statutary deadline and the company knows what this deadline is. Reading between the lines, I suspect it is mid to late Spring. As far as its safety, probably the study data are good or the company would not be as positive as they are. However, this drug interferes with a basic signalling mechanism used for a variety of uses in the body. It is really impossible to predict rare side effects based on the few thousand patients likely to be included in FDA studies. In the first year or two after approval major problems, if existent, are likely to become evident. I personally would prescribe this drug in the first year after approval only in extraordinary circumstances. E.G. a man's wife is dying of cancer and not expected to live another year or two, or some other extreme circumstance. I would not want anyone I cared about to use the drug. However, other patients and doctors will not be so careful and will "test" the drug for us. Many drugs have been withdrawn within the first few years of use and show the wisdom of this course. Consider Seldane and the recent Fen/Phen catastrophe. This drug is a higher risk for a problem because of its mechanism of action. That being said, Vivus will have a good market, which I estimate to be about 30% of the entire ED market, including mild ED for which the pill will be more popular. This market is not an ordinary market because it requires that patients go through physicians who may be aware of all the options. (The accuracy of that depends on the percentage of Rx from primary care and the penetration of information on Muse into the primary care provider market). Therefore, the choice of drug will be moderated by a knowledgeable (hopefully) provider so that a patient who asks for Viagra may end up with a RX for Muse, etc. As a one drug company, the price of Vivus stock will obviously be affected by the sales of Muse. If it does well, as I predict, the price will reflect that and double or quadruple, at least. Viagra, no matter how successful, is only a portion of Pfizer's drug line. I would suggest Vivus as a speculative, potentially high-payoff investment and Pfizer as a more predictable, but probably less profitable investment. Its probably reasonable to buy both and take advantage of earnings available from the ED market. Most people are not yet aware of the potential of the ED market period.