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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (980)	1/16/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Repost: on some Commodity prices in SEA -------------- ASIAN DEMAND FOR PETROCHEMICALS FADES, PRICES PLUNGE Futures World News - January 16, 1998 07:08 Tokyo-Jan. 16-FWN--PETROCHEMICAL PRODUCT PRICES ARE collapsing across Asia as overstocked South Korean producers dump inventories against a backdrop of rapidly eroding downstream demand due to financial crises and economic turmoil throughout the region. The Asian spot price for propylene is currently US$330- $360 per metric ton (including freight and insurance), down US$20 since the end of 1997 and US$70 below last summer when the downward trend emerged. Ethylene now runs US$470-$485 per ton, about US$60 (11%) less than last month. ---------------------------------- There's only one word for it: desperation! T.

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (980)	1/16/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: Mark Nelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Mohan, re: "I think by now we must have corrected this anomaly and the stock prices reflect it." S&P 500 is less than 3% off of it's high. Earnings projections in 45% of the companies with significant exposure to Asia have not been revised. I know a lot of stocks are much further down but it's good to keep perspective on this. Mark

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (980)	1/16/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Jack Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Mohan, Don't worry about being condescending. I take criticism pretty well having lived long enough to become somewhat humble, and I do appreciate your opinion. I guess our difference is simply that you believe it is a "new era" wherein it doesn't matter that the "valuation" of the S&P reflects the most overvalued levels in history, specifically: price to book of >5, P/E >20, Dividend yield <1.7. Historical fact: There has never in history been a time when it was a good time to buy stocks with valuations anywhere near these levels. So maybe you are right, and it is a new era. But I am reminded of the times in the past when "this time it's different" proved not to be true. Time, of course, will tell if it truly is a new era, or just a prolongation of a speculative bubble. Thanks again. Jack