Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (144059)	11/23/2018 5:58:27 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217591

(1) re <<price seems to be meaningless, other forces at work, as in correlations no longer correlations, pricing is algorithims on WS at the least >> (1-i) quite a number of money manager types closing long-time business / returning capital to investors; common refrains, - "what i have known for xx years no longer working" - "i may have lost it. nothing works" - "for the first time in my life i am worried" - "reinvention time" - "hope is not a strategy. loss of hope does not lead to strategy" (1-ii) bottom line, it is dark and darkening out there (1-iii) folks still universally believe we are talking about 30-50% drawdown as opposed to 98% wipeout (2) re <<... other forces at work, as in correlations>> (2-i) the common take on this side of pond, by expats and locals, is that trump is an expression, and mandated to be trump-in-washington, and is doing as he implicitly promised, explicitly mandated, and is doing as he should, per promise and mandate (2-ii) once trump is done, be it 2 or 6 years from now, may be followed by trump+ as politicians mine the well trump discovered, and trump shall revert to being a billionaire (2-iii) for everyone else, live the consequences, but the consequences merely speeded up and triggered / given expression by trump, and really not created by trump (2-iv) the central banks still have saves in dry-powder form, but the next round, should banks run into rocks again, may well be bail-in's and not -out's (2-v) the economies face trade war rather than peace, and in war, all get hurt - not priced-in (2-vi) the domestic politics of nations dictate that all proceed as are, full-speed and no-blinking (2-vii) the geo-politics adds another layer of complications and takes on life of own, unpleasantly feeding back into (2-v) and (2-vi) above, such that (2-iv) central bankers can not forestall what the politicians gun for and only make events worse (3) impressive setup we find ourselves, currently neither here nor there, watch & brief, waiting for something we can only imagine if we had the bandwidth besides watching & briefing, and perhaps never experienced we are in for it, what ever the it, either the 30-50% drawdown or the unimaginable 98% should perfect storm hit. 2026 / 2032, or earlier and more compressed if we are lucky. we may get lucky, as usa, china and russia all ruled by strong men, and europe and japan appear strong-enough