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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sixty2nds who wrote (21523)	11/1/2018 1:28:26 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By sixty2nds Respond to of 33421

Thanks for the Ed blog. “China’s...aging demographic forces, which were significantly exacerbated by the Chinese government’s one-child policy, are already depressing the growth rate of real retail sales in China ( Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). As a result, the government is scrambling to expand its overseas military and economic power to counter the structural weakness at home. ... “So the government reversed course, with a two-child policy effective January 1, 2016. Births soared by 7.9% that year with the deliveries of about 18 million newborns. But that was still short of the government estimates and might not be sustainable. At least 45% of the babies born during 2016 were to families that already had one child. [For more, see link.] ... “The move to a two-child policy is coming too late, in my opinion. China’s primary working-age population peaked at a record high of just over 1.0 billion during 2014 and is projected to fall to 815 million by 2050 ( Fig. 12). By then, the primary working-age population in China will represent 60% of the total population, below the peak of 74% during 2010 ( Fig. 13). The elderly dependency ratio will drop from 7.5 workers per senior in 2015 to 2.3 by 2050 ( Fig. 14). Demographics is forcing the Chinese to seek market in the emerging markets. The Chinese used money, influence to access emerging markets. We can now expect that as part of President Donald Trump is implementing policies aimed at either slowing or halting China’s drive to become a superpower. will be to block the Chinese infuence on Emering markets.