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To: Lucretius who wrote (8497)1/16/1998 4:29:00 PM
From: SJS  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 95453
 
3 things...

1) NE exploded to the upside in the last 5 minutes today. Anything cookin? (I'm very long March 22.5 calls!!)

2) Dain Rauscher followed Lehman and did a second upgrade (+.10 to 1998 earnings from 1.93 to 2.03 as well as an upgrade for 1999 as well) to GLM today. Gotta love that, Glen, HH?

3) I am concerned overall, but follow the general thinking that:

a) most of the shock of asia has been heard and factored in. It's not over, but I think we understand whats' going on and how to get it fixed.
b) oils near it's bottom and people are still predicting 18-21/barrel overall for the year. I think there's now more up than downside.
c) econony has balance with low/non existant inflation (possibly minor deflation).
d) people have money from 3 years of gains, and additional possible tax cuts coming. This will keep the ecomony going (and tax coffers full)
e) Middle east quiet for now, except for Sadam.

I think we're still vunerable to a major (or made to be major) incident, which will cause profit taking and the "sky is falling" mentality again. I think we'll be choppy, and many LT traders will simply "not be be looking every second" at their portfolios, or learn how to ride the waves, and ST trade them as well.