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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (831)	1/16/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: sammy levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Dale You are my cdrd expert.If u are still watching it,any opinion re recent activity ? Tnks/Sammy p.s i am short 14 1/2

To: Dale Baker who wrote (831)	1/18/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Dale, Unfortunately, it's too late for me to hold off on SEBL and ITWO, as I shorted them Monday, and am already underwater -- only slightly on ITWO, and more so on SEBL. I am not too concerned about earnings though, and even welcome them. I haven't seen many stocks lately that have exploded upwards on good earnings, but I've seen several that have crashed on bad earnings. So while I'm hoping for bad earnings, I'm not especially worried what will happen if they are good. Both of these stocks are very close to their highs. For the benefit of others interested in these two stocks: ITWO makes software for supply chain management, and competes with such companies as PeopleSoft and Oracle. International sales (Asia, Canada, and Europe) represent 29% of their revenues. They have also issued a lot of stock recently, with some coming from selling shareholders. ITWO's P/E is around 263, and their PSR is 10.2. SEBL has also had insider selling. They are also a software company, concentrating on sales, marketing, and customer service software. Their top ten customers account for half of their sales. International sales (Japan) account for 31% of their revenues. SEBL's P/E is around 109, and their PSR is 17.6. I don't think they will be able to maintain the same rate of sales and earnings growth, especially in light of trouble in Asia, and I don't think they deserve P/E's over 100.