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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (11635)	1/16/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: Thomas Scharf	Respond to of 77400

I was talking about earnings disappointments, not investor disappointment. If expectations are too far out of line, investor disappointment is inevitable. I consider the current high percentage of bearish posts to this thread to be a bullish indicator. As I pointed out over a year ago (before the most recent gyrations), there are 2 factors which now make csco's earnings much more predictable. First, the entire networking business is gradually maturing. Growth is now on a steady, healty upward curve rather than climbing almost straight up as it was a few years ago. Eventually, the worlds networks will be sufficiently built-out that the curve will flatten, but I don't expect that trend to begin for at least 5 years. Second, csco has such a large share of the market that it can't grow any faster than the market. They can't steal enough market share from anyone else to make a difference. I currently consider csco a core holding with expectations of 25-35% anual growth. Anything above that is just a bonus.