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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (4651)	1/16/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: X-Ray Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Well, if we are predicting, I'll have a go at it for fun and just to be contrarian. I think will will see the EPS you predict (.82-.85) undiluted. But I think that with the new requirement to report fully diluted EPS, some investors will be dismayed psychologically. I think there will be continual negative news on DOJ side for the rest of the year. I expect MSFT will announce a buy back of the size you suggest ONLY if stock is stuck below current levels. I don't see a split this year. I see the current runup as a prelude to earnings report, but suggest a fallback thereafter. I suspect the PE to settle closer to 40 trailing by the end of the year, so stock could end up near 160 by fall. I don't think anyone investing at these levels will see the stock double in the next two years, unless the company is broken into smaller parts. Well, I've been wrong before and right before, so I could be either this time. And I have no justification for my prediction. But I figure if I'm right this time, maybe someone will buy me a beer and give me a pat on the back, or maybe I can claim I am a great analyst and get alot of patsies to pay me money for my verbiage ;-) Good luck to all.

To: johnd who wrote (4651)	2/4/1998 7:49:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Folks, look at posting #4651 I find it interesting that MSFT is letting me predict their earnings and future stock price with reasonable certainity. Please take a look at my Jan 16th posting #4651. That was a week before the earnings report. I predicted the EPS would be .82 - .85c and the stock would hit 157. In an earler note I had also predicted that 157 would be hit in February and predicted last quarter revenues. I am glad MSFT hit .85c, $3.59B revenues, 157 stock price. that the last quarter revenues will be $3.59. So what do I predict here? (a) Due stock split stock trading at around 160/2 => 80 for February. (b) Retirement $$ going into Megellan (MSFT, 2nd largest holding) keeping the price of stock stable. (c) By End of April, stock hitting 85, after split. johnd