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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MIKenn who wrote (13741)	1/16/1998 6:32:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Respond to of 97611

Abbey Cohen was on CNBC this evening and still VERY BULLISH. She said that 3 sectors would lead this market higher....one of the 3 was the "beaten down, oversold tech sector." Stephen

To: MIKenn who wrote (13741)	1/16/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: PCSS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

CNBC "On-the-Edge" program anchored by David Faber just had an interesting discussion-bebate about the future of the pc market. Representing the very bearish outlook was Bill Flickstein(BF) of Flickstein Securities, who, by-the-way, bet on the wrong side of the pc market in 1997 but bet on the right side in 1997 shorting INTC and MU. On the "more sane" side was the Chief Analyst for Nomura Securities (NS). (1) pc as a commodity BF: pc is a plactic commodity and anyone (incl. FEDEX) can get into the business and challenge CPQ, IBM and DELL. NS: as when fying there are many airlines which go between two cities and brand name means a lot. (2) sub 1K pcs BF: making a 2K pc and selling it now for 1K decrease profit margins and they'll have to sell twice as many and they won't NS: 1K pcs have been designed for selling at 1k and profit margins will be fine additionally helped by asian parts price decline (3) Asian crisis BF: over the next 90 days the effect will begin to be felt here since those companies doing business in asia will be forced to cut back on many things including technology NS: pat prices and cost points will benefit some and he asian crisis will not be great (4) Channel Stuffing BF: CPQ and IBM did a lot of channel stuffing during Christmas NS: 1 year ago CPQ had inventory at >12 weeks, they did some necessary channel stuffing during Christmas but it was necessary, CPQ's goal in about 3-4 weeks inventory and he expects CPQ to attain this goal by the end of 1Q98. (5) 1998 Growth BF: minimal NS: CPQ 25% - STONG BUY , DELL and HP about 50% - BUYs SUMMARY: Me BF had some good points but was very emotionally tied to them and could very well be the type of person this nervous market has been listening to (repeat: BF lost big on the pc stocks in 97 and he is repeating his position for 98...maybe he is right and maybe he is trying to save some face ??) NS seemed realistic and could very well be absolutely correct. Abby Cohen's remarks about the tech sector support NS. ONLY TIME WILL TELL ....this was just the type of "debate/discussion" we have been having on this thread for over 4 months now...and will continue Thought you all would be interested in this...just reporting

To: MIKenn who wrote (13741)	1/16/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Analog Kid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

I'm sorry about your Jan. 60's.......I watched 140 of them expire on me too....what tickes me off is we never had a chance to get out and have been suffering with them since Nov. Ouch! I'm with you, I wouldn't expect too much upside for awhile. Should have done that already. Hope it does crank up soon, I'm sittting on alot of April calls since Nov. as well. Good Luck....