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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: janski who wrote (13728)	1/17/1998 9:41:00 AM
From: Steve Scribe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Since the latest Kinnard report from 1/6/98 says the following: <<The Kinnard report also indicates that the likelihood of Ancor getting an OEM contract is greater than ever. Kinnard set a price target of $10.ÿ If Ancor receives an OEM contract for the MKII, they say that the stock could be well over $15. (No time frame was given for either projection.)>> Using 2 sets of assumptions I calculated the odds of Ancor getting at least 1 OEM. The first set of assumptions is that Ancor has a 1/2 chance of getting each OEM and that there are 10 OEM opportunities. (1 - (1/21/21/21/21/21/21/21/21/21/2)) = 99.9% Therefore the competition has a 00.1% chance of stringing 10 OEM victories in a row leaving Ancor a 99.9% chance of winning at least 1 OEM. My more pessimistic model assumes the competition has a 3/4 chance of beating Ancor for each of 10 OEM opportunities. (1 - (3/43/43/43/43/43/43/43/43/43/4)) = 94.4% Therefore, even if you assume Ancor has only a 25% chance of beating Brocade for each OEM, Ancor still has a 94.4% chance of getting at least one MKII OEM and the stock price moving well above $15 per share per the Kinnard forcast of the impact on the Ancor stock price of a MKII OEM contract. All IMHO, Steve

To: janski who wrote (13728)	1/18/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: iceburg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Do you or anybody else know anything about the status of Ancor's project with NTT for such interface between ATM and Fibre Channel? Or do you think that it's dead now that focus shifted to storage? Ancor's relationship with NTT is alive and well. They will not tell me anymore than that. No time frame, no terms, no potential $$$ etc, etc. All I can tell you is that relationship still exists according to Ancor. I also asked them if they had any involvement in the Malyasian computing center (which NTT reported had a 2 Billion dollar Fibre infrastructure) and I got a "no comment". I asked what kind of things could arise in a relationship such as that (I brought up royalties, contracts, OEM etc) and I got "No comment" Just another reason I am willing to roll the dice on this company, no proof but the potential is there. Again, if they had a 100M contract with NTT, this stock would no longer be speculative. Steve B.T.W. I sought professional help as you advised. She told me to go snowmobiling in Northern Wisconsin and I did. I raced through winding trails at 50 m.p.h with trees 4 feet from each shoulder, I screamed across lakes at 100 m.p.h. and it rocked! I ran into conservation officers but luckily it was at the Polaris dealer in Iron River. I learned my lesson. Tomorrow I will short more YHOO and purchase more ANCR!