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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JessiDani who wrote (8365)	1/16/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Brian Lempel	Respond to of 13925

JD, first of all, margins are not shrinking. Second of all, earnings are not decreasing. The real beauty of CREAF is that estimates are likely too low. That is what I look for in an investment. CREAF's numbers are low because no one really knows what the impact of DVD and speaker sales. This is not to mention the distinct possibility of exclusive OEM contracts. Yippity Dippity, Brian

To: JessiDani who wrote (8365)	1/17/1998 12:26:00 AM
From: Dennis G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13925

Where did you get the info that CREAF's margins are shrinking? They have in fact been up nicely the last few quarters. And they should be as good or better this quarter. It would appear to me that the market is simply guessing that somehow they must drop in the future, with no real evidence to back it up. Just because they can't see the future very easily for this company, they've kicked it in the butt. And Doug was only making a hypothetical worse case scenario. If CREAF meets its number this quarter as expected, they will already be more than half way to 2.50 for the year. Even if they lost 20% of their Asian revenues, thats only about 5% of total revenues. Assuming no major effect on margins, thats only 5% of earnings. And since the year is half over, that makes only 2% for the year. That's well within the noise of their estimates. And 2.50 is a 36% growth rate over last year. The visiblity for next year is certainly cloudy, but if DVD ramps up as expected, earnings could easily far surpass what the analysts are coming up with. I just can not comprehend so much negativity about a company which is making more money and has better products and is in better shape than it's ever been. And at the same time as there's skyrocketing crap like ONSL, AMZN and YHOO. This company is going to make almost as much money as LU for cripes sake. What the hell do people want? Dennis

To: JessiDani who wrote (8365)	1/17/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 13925

JD, I would guess that CREAF will not get back into the $20's until summertime, but hover in the high teens until, with a lot of false starts on the upside. But note- one technical factor changed in CREAF today- for the first time in about since last October the Up/Down Ratio has once again turned positive on CREAF- that means that the stock is now under accumulation. Now true we are still in a bear chart pattern for CREAF-but the chart pattern is clearly improving- and indeed this is happening to almost 85% of the tech stocks which I follow technically right now. Will we savagely sprint forward in techs right now? No, but the downside is fading, and I am not going to try to time the bottom perfectly..... Macroeconomically there about two events which would "ding" everybody- and that would be Japan having continual banking problems, or a big currency devaluation coming out of China, which would hurt Hong Kong, and then spill into other Asian markets. The possibiity of these two events should make one a bit cautious- but if you want to be in the market, you need to adopt an "offensive" position. In fact can anyone explain to me what the heck a "defensive stock" is??? (Buy and ladder some bond maturities if you want to be cautious- and IMO that is not as conservative as owning a diversified portfolio of different classes of stocks/bonds including tech stocks!). Macroeconomically not all asset classes/ types of stocks move in synchronization up and down- indeed I'm betting this year that techs/ telecommunication stocks do fine later in the year while the Dow and S&P just slouch along.... Sincerely, Doug F.