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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elpolvo who wrote (144393)	12/3/2018 6:36:53 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217576

now americans are focused on auto tariff of china, which now is high, and wondering it it is to be lowered per a game of checkers zerohedge.com Mystery Of Chinese Auto Tariffs Deepens As Kudlow, Mnuchin Only Add To ConfusionOne of the catalysts bolstering the overnight rally, which sent auto stocks surging both in the US and across the Atlantic, was a late night tweet by Donald Trump according to which "China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into China from the U.S. Currently the tariff is 40%" without giving any further details. This however prompted even more questions about the outcome of his meeting with counterpart Xi Jinping as this was the first time that this aspect of the US-China trade agreement had been unveiled. On Monday morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed Trump's tweet, saying that China has agreed to eliminate tariffs on imported automobiles but declined to give details. "The first part was to reduce the surcharge, but yes there have been specific discussions on where auto tariffs will come down to, but I’m not prepared to talk about the specifics," Mnuchin told reporters outside the White House, leaving the mystery intact. A little later, Trump's chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, told reporters that the Chinese are “going to roll back their auto tariffs,” adding “that’s got to be part of the deal" talking back Trump's definitive assessment that China had agreed to "reduce and remove" (which is it?) auto tariffs. Speaking later, Kudlow added some more confusion when he said that he "assumes" China will put car tariffs on the table right away, a statement that certainly does not imply China had "agreed" to anything. Finally, confirming that there was - in fact - no agreement, speaking to NPR earlier today, Peter Navarro refused to confirm that China had cut auto tariffs, instead saying only that that topic "certainly came up" in Buenos Aires. Meanwhile, from the Chinese side, there was little mention of car tariffs being part of a deal. In fact, there was no mention at all: in a briefing in Beijing a few hours after the tweet, China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang declined to comment on any car tariff changes. As Bloomberg notes, the uncertainty about a deal on car tariffs stems from the unusual nature of the G-20 negotiation. The outcome of the talks wasn’t recorded in a joint statement, and so the two sides have instead emphasized different results. China hiked its tariff on U.S.-made cars to 40% earlier this year in retaliation for tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese imports, and Beijing has made no announcement about reducing the car tariff. Last week, China said that tariffs on U.S. autos would be 15 percent if not for the trade dispute, and it called for a negotiated solution. Chinese officials discussed the possibility of lowering tariffs on U.S. car imports before Xi met Trump in Argentina. But the magnitude and timing of such a reduction were unclear, a Bloomberg source said. The U.S. currently charges a 27.5 percent tax on imported cars from China. Of course, any breakthrough in the auto tariff front would be widely cheered by the market: as both domestic and foreign carmakers have long pleaded for freer access to China’s auto market, while its own manufacturers are trying to expand abroad. In April, China announced a timetable to permit foreign automakers to own more than 50 percent of local carmaking ventures. In summary, confusion continues to reign over whether the US and China struck some deal to "reduce and remove" tariffs, even if for now the S&P auto sector is happy to buy first and ask questions later.

To: elpolvo who wrote (144393)	12/3/2018 7:54:15 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217576

back in 1999 (so much for history-doesn't-matter) china undertook to ... blah blah blah, ... per international chess game indiana.edu

To: elpolvo who wrote (144393)	12/3/2018 7:58:36 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217576

... and of course we must remember that the china officialdom had already announced intention to force the issue w/r to electric cars, per need to phase out that which others do better, named carbon-based cars ... ala chinese chess, with the guns able to jump over other pieces to score points against targets bloomberg.com China Is About to Shake Up the World of Electric CarsChina is set to unleash a seismic shakeup of the automotive industry when it introduces stringent rules to promote new-energy vehicles. From 2019, major manufacturers will be punished unless they meet quotas for zero- and low-emission cars or they buy credits from other companies that exceed the quotas. The so-called cap-and-trade system is designed to spur the market for electric cars at the expense of gas guzzlers, all part of China’s quest to clean its air and reduce dependence on imported oil. Another major driver: Helping develop a homegrown electric-vehicle industry. 1. How is China’s electric vehicle push going?China is not only the biggest global car market but the world leader in electric cars, with sales seen topping 1 million this year for the first time. Since the first models hit the streets more than a decade ago, the country has overtaken other markets partly through its sheer size and partly by luring consumers with subsidies and tax breaks. Nonetheless, electric vehicles account for just 3 percent of sales, leaving ample room for growth. Having previously focused on stimulating demand, the government is changing lanes and shifting policy toward propelling supply. Gearing Up for Cleaner Cars China leads the charge as electric-vehicle sales seen surging globally Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (forecasts from 2018) 2. What are the new rules?Complicated. Automakers that produce more than 30,000 vehicles will have to obtain a new-energy vehicle (NEV) credit of at least 10 percent in 2019, rising to 12 percent in 2020. To confuse matters, a score of 10 percent doesn’t mean that a full one-tenth of a company’s vehicles must be new-energy varieties (battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles or fuel-cell vehicles). In fact, the total will probably be lower. 3. Why lower?Because vehicles are awarded credit scores depending on their green credentials, such as how far they go without needing a charge. The least eco-friendly NEV will receive a credit score of two, while the greenest will get a maximum credit of six. So, to meet the 2019 credit target of 10 percent, a carmaker producing 100,000 gasoline-based vehicles would need 10,000 credits. Those could be earned by manufacturing 2,000 cars with an NEV score each of five. If the automaker produced more than 2,000, it could sell the extra credits; fewer than 2,000, and it would need to buy credits. If it failed to top up its credits, the company would face sanctions, such as new models not being approved or production halts for gasoline cars. The government is also introducing new fuel consumption guidelines in 2019. Carmakers that do not comply will be able to use the credit system to address any shortfall. 4. What impact will the quotas have?It’s a milestone policy, says the International Council on Clean Transportation. “Since China is the world’s largest auto market, this NEV mandate policy will undoubtedly speed up the global transition to a zero-emission fleet, which will be vital for the climate and for urban air quality,” the non-profit group said. According to Bloomberg NEF, the 12 percent target for 2020 would translate to about 4 percent to 5 percent of actual car sales, based on the current average NEV score of 3 per vehicle. China hasn’t announced targets beyond 2020. 5. How are credits calculated?To qualify for a credit, a battery-electric vehicle needs a range of at least 100 kilometers (62 miles) on one charge and a top speed of at least 100 kilometers per hour. A plug-in hybrid vehicle needs an electric range of at least 50 kilometers. The NEV credit score is calculated in two stages: First, a formula is applied (0.012 multiplied by the range + 0.8) to get a base score. (For a 300km range, the score is 4.4.) Second, that figure is multiplied by a so-called adjustment factor -- ranging from 0.5 to 1.2 -- derived from the vehicle’s energy consumption and weight, yielding a maximum total of six. 6. How does the credit-trading system work?Companies that fail to meet the 10 percent mark next year will need to purchase credits from competitors or face the aforementioned penalties. Trading of the credits will take place on a platform set up by the industry regulator, with pricing negotiated by the companies themselves and determined through supply and demand. 7. Who are the winners and losers?Companies that have a head start on producing NEVs have the highest credit scores. Those include BYD Co., BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd., according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The highest negative fuel consumption credits were Ford Motor Co.’s China venture with Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., leading SUV maker Great Wall Motor Co. and Dongfeng Motor Corp. Most global brands, such as Toyota, Volkswagen and General Motors, were somewhere in between. Though their volumes are still small, upscale electric-car makers Tesla Inc. and NIO Inc. are eventually set to obtain high scores. China's Automakers Better Prepared The sheer size of the global giants slows their transition to electric vehicles Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance's EV Exposure Index, which rates carmakers by their readiness for electric vehicles 8. What are carmakers doing to prepare?Auto companies that focus on NEVs need do nothing different. But almost all global brands that have traditionally relied on gasoline remain far away from China’s requirements and have started to accelerate the introduction and production of electric models. Some have also struck pacts with local partners that have NEV expertise; Ford has tied up with Zotye Automobile Co. and BMW agreed to work with Great Wall in producing electric Minis. Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi and Fiat Chrysler are planning to sell what’s essentially the same electric SUV, developed by local partner Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. The Reference ShelfQuickTake explainers on electric cars, battery technology and China’s EV push.The International Council of Clean Transportation’s report on China’s credit score rules. A 2017 McKinsey report on China’s electric car industry.The Electric Vehicle Outlook report complied by Bloomberg New Energy Finance for 2018. Why charging your electric car at night could save the world.A Bloomberg Opinion editorial on China’s electric car rise.— With assistance by Ying Tian

To: elpolvo who wrote (144393)	12/3/2018 8:12:09 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217576

but, per the game of Go, what used to be vague is now very clear, per belt & road, africa the new world, electric everything next generation of anything coincidences i am sure, unless of course one paid attention all along to the real news bloomberg.com China Has a Secret Weapon in the Race to Dominate Electric Cars By Jack Farchy and Hayley Warren December 2, 2018 Giant Terex Corp. mining excavator in Katanaga, D.R.C. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg Over the past two years, cobalt has emerged as one of the hottest commodities of the electric-vehicle revolution. The silvery-blue metal, an important component in lithium-ion batteries, has more than doubled in price, making carmakers and tech giants fret about securing their future needs. The focus on the metal has turned a spotlight on the obscure supply chain that takes cobalt produced in mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Canada or Morocco, and ultimately delivers cobalt-containing batteries to companies from Samsung Electronics Co. to Volkswagen AG. That supply chain is dominated by Chinese companies. Many of the leading companies that mine cobalt, such as Glencore Plc and Vale SA, are well known. So too, at the other end of the spectrum, are the tech companies and carmakers that buy batteries. In between them sit companies that refine cobalt ore to make chemicals like cobalt sulphate; companies that combine these chemicals with other metals like nickel and manganese to make the cathode element of a lithium-ion battery; and companies that assemble the cathodes with the other components to make battery cells, and ultimately batteries. Cobalt is almost always produced as a byproduct of either nickel or copper mining Copper and cobalt mine operated by Katanga Mining Ltd. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg While there’s little cobalt mining in China itself (1 percent of the world’s total output in 2017), Chinese companies have snapped up cobalt mines abroad in recent years, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest source of the metal. Cobalt Origins More than two-thirds of cobalt mined in 2017 came from the Congo New Caledonia 2% Sources: Darton Commodities Ltd. One key concern for cobalt buyers is that more than half of the world’s supply of the metal originates from a country where there has never been a peaceful transition of power. Reports of child labor at some small-scale mines in Congo has prompted some end users to trace the supply chain for the cobalt in the batteries they buy. Eight of the 14 largest cobalt miners in Congo are now Chinese-owned, accounting for almost half of the country’s output. Mining Stronghold Share of 2017 output in Democratic Republic of Congo Mutanda Mining Glencore, Switzerland Other D.R.C. including artisanal mining Tenke Fungurume CMOC, China Congo Dongfang Mining Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, China Ruashi Mining Jinchuan Group, China Etoile/Usoke Shalina Resources/Chemaf, U.A.E. Boss Mining ERG, Luxembourg Kamoya Wanbao Mining Ltd. (Comika), China Metal Mines Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt, China Big Hill GTL, Belgium/Cuba Somika Somika SPRL, D.R.C. MJM Jiana Energy, China MKM CREC, China Sicomines CREC, China Glencore Katanga Mining/KCC, Switzerland Katanga Mining Ltd. production was suspended in 2015, and restarted in 2018. Sources: Darton Commodities, EO Browser/Sinergise Ltd., USGS Mineral Resources After the cobalt has been mined, it is sold–sometimes via traders–to refiners. They produce cobalt metal and powder, which are mostly used to make superalloys used in jet engines, or chemicals like cobalt sulphate, which are used to make batteries. Companies refine cobalt ore into metal, powder and chemicals Photographer: Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg China is even more dominant in the production of cobalt chemicals needed to make batteries than Congo is in cobalt mining. According to data from Darton Commodities Ltd., China accounts for more than 80 percent of the production of cobalt chemicals. “China controls a massive proportion of the world’s cobalt sulphate,” says George Heppel, an analyst at consultancy CRU Group in London. “Aside from one chemical refinery in Finland, they control pretty much the entire world’s cobalt chemical refining capacity.” Chemical Strength Cobalt refined in 2017, in metric tons Chemical Powder Metal Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt17.1KJinchuan Group8.7KShenzhen GEM8.2KVarious other China7.8KFreeport Cobalt7.0KUmicore (Guangzhou)5.4KJiana Energy4.0KGanzhou Tengyuan3.3KUmicore (Olen)1.6KNorilsk900Impala Platinum350Gecamines200Eramet100 Chemical refers to refined cobalt excluding metals and coarse powders. Source: Darton Commodities Ltd. In the next stage of processing, the cobalt chemicals are put together with other metals, such as manganese or aluminum, to make cathodes—the positively charged part of a battery. Cathodes are produced by combining cobalt with other metals Photographer: Jasper Juinen/Bloomberg There’s a wide range of different chemical makeups of lithium-ion batteries. Not all of them use cobalt, but many of the most popular do. Following the surge in cobalt prices, most batterymakers are researching ways to reduce the proportion of cobalt in their batteries. Currently in the ascendancy in the electric-vehicle industry are nickel—manganese—cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries, used in most electric cars, and 57 percent of the production capacity for this type of cathode is in China. Tesla Inc., however, uses nickel—cobalt—aluminium oxide (NCA) batteries, which have a lower proportion of cobalt. Cathodes of this type are largely made in Japan. The consumer electronics industry largely uses lithium—cobalt—oxide (LCO) batteries, which contain the highest proportion of cobalt. Positive ChargeBattery cathode capacity, in tons ?? Fully commissioned Commissioned by end 2021 117KChina72KJapan44KKorea7KU.S. Shanshan Technology Group Ningbo Jinhe New Materials Beijing Easpring Material Technology Hunan Reshine New Material Shenzhen Tianjiao Technology Development JX Nippon Mining & Metals Corp BASF Toda Battery Materials Pulead Technology Industry Finally, the cathodes are brought together with the other components of a battery to make battery cells and then whole batteries in so-called “megafactories.” Electric vehicle battery packs are composed of thousands of individual cells LG Chem battery packs at Korea’s Hyundai plant. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg After Tesla pioneered the concept of a gigafactory in Nevada, there are now dozens of similar plants springing up across China. Chinese companies, like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., are rapidly expanding. “We are going to increasingly see a lot of battery manufacturing migrating to China because the materials involved in manufacturing it are so readily available,” says Heppel. Power HungryBattery plant capacity, in megawatt hours ?? Fully commissioned Commissioned by end 2021 380KChina119KU.S.51KThailand43KEurope36KOther Contemporary Amperex Technology Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Dynavolt Renewable Power Technology Guangzhou Great Power Energy & Technology Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology CBAK Energy Technology Inc Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics Automotive Energy Supply Corp Only manufacturers with combined capacity exceeding 5,000MWh are broken out Source: Bloomberg NEF “There’s not going to be enough cobalt for everyone to avoid China,” says Heppel. “No matter how clever people try to be, there’s always going to be more readily available materials in China, which gives them a significant advantage.”

To: elpolvo who wrote (144393)	2/9/2019 5:29:17 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217576

sometimes one only needs to think a few months ahead of time qz.com China now effectively controls half the world's lithium production — Quartz Akshat RathiMay 30, 2018 Reuters/Thomas White Powering the world.Tianqi Lithium, a Chinese company, recently paid more than $4 billion to become the second-largest shareholder in Sociedad Química y Minera (SQM), a Chilean mining company. The deal gives the company effective control over nearly half the current global production of lithium, a critical component in battery technology. The investments is producing an unusual amount of drama. Last month, the Chinese government had to intervene (paywall) to warn the Chilean government that blocking the deal, which it has the power to do, could harm their bilateral relations. The Chilean government is worried that giving Tianqi so much control over lithium could distort the market. Why all the fuss? Let’s find out with the help of charts. Every smartphone and fully electric car in the world is powered by the same type of battery. Such are the benefits of lithium-ion technology that, in less than 30 years, it has gone from zero market share to having nearly the same market share as the age-old lead-acid battery. In recent years China has come to dominate the lithium-ion industry. Though Japan had a head start, because Sony was the company that first commercialized the technology, China was able to catch up because of its ability to manufacture the batteries at larger scales and sell them for cheaper. Lithium-ion batteries, of course, need lots of lithium—the lightest metal known. It should be no surprise that the cost of the metal has shot up. Surprisingly, even though China has large reserves of lithium ore, it doesn’t currently produce as much of it. The leaders are Australia, Chile, and Argentina. As the world buys more electric cars, industry analysts predict that the lithium-ion battery market is set to grow at an astonishing pace of 19% per year. China sold more than 750,000 electric cars last year, up more than 50% from 2016. More importantly, Beijing wants electric cars to make up 20% of the new cars sold in China in 2025, up from 3% in 2017. That explains why China is wading into a corporate deal involving a Chilean mining company. To maintain its dominance in the lithium-ion market, Chinese manufacturers needs access to lots of cheap lithium. Along with the stake in SQM, Tianqi owns 51% of Australia’s Greenbushes lithium mine, giving it effective control nearly half the current global production of the metal, according to Huang Liheng, an analyst at GF Securities. But Chile could still have the last laugh. In April, the country’s economic development agency, Corfo, complained that Tianqi’s control on lithium could “gravely distort market competition.” For example, China could suddenly start buying SQM’s lithium at lower than market costs and thus affect the taxes Chilean government could collect from the sales. Regulators have a chance to oppose the deal by August, if they think that Tianqi owning so much of the world’s lithium is a problem.