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Biotech / Medical : Biogen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harold Engstrom who wrote (548)	1/17/1998 1:11:00 AM
From: Vector1	Respond to of 1686

Harold, I thought the 4th quarter Avonex numbers were impressive, however I do not believe the European ramp up will be as aggressive as in the US. My reasons are as follows: First reimbursement proceedures have not been worked out in many of the European countries. Second, European nuerologists tend to be less aggressive in their treatment of MS than in the US. Third there will be another interferon competitor in Europe in the Third or Fourth q that will slow growth. That being said I believe the US still has legs as still only roughly 1/3 of the population that meets the label are being treated. I also believe as the year goes by more aggressive physicians will begin treating earlier stage patients off label. My EPS number for the year is $1.85. I believe the multiple should be 22-25 times which is below the top pharma and below the companies year over year growth. I have discounted the multiple because of the loss of royalty rev in 2000. Any positive news on the new product front will really pop the stock V1