Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ET who wrote (12779)	1/16/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 25960

ET, so many questions, let me start from the last one, yes I was banned from SI for few days, if you are interested in reading my side of the story it is posted at: Message 3072171 Now as to where I got the numbers, I stated that the numbers for shipments (1997 and 1998 forecasts) are from Semiconductor International the November issue (page 154). Then I stated, what I think might happen to the actual numbers (1998) and to the BTB, these, as any person would presume, are pulled from my hat, these are my educated guesses. Since I have been on record since late September/early October that the semi and the Semi equip. are facing a tough time till the end of Feb, I think you may want to listen to my educated guesses (from my hat) or projections and weigh them together with others' that are still projecting growth in 1998 for the semi- equip, particularly in view of the fact that I have presented an argument (possibly faulty) to support these conjectures. Now the next question was about gold stocks and under $5 dollars stocks, are you implying I should not post on CYMI until it becomes an "under $5" stock? (g). I started posting on PMAT (latter to be TRKN) when it was a $16 stock, and forecasted a disaster due to the acquisition of electrotech, now it is a $1.25 stock. Some people avoided that stock because of my postings, I think I did them a good service not a diservice. You keep complaining when people do not sing the glory of CYMI. I actually happen to like this company quite a lot, but that does not mean that I am going to point to only the positive sides, there are many like you doing this job quite nicely, and thus my positive comments would just be duplicative. Now, what was the point you were trying to make? Zeev

To: ET who wrote (12779)	1/17/1998 1:04:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

ET, Zeev is just one more opinion on SI to consider. If you don't like his projections, don't pay attention to them. I for one always welcome contrary views, and find it healthy to view things from the perspective of others. If you click on Zeev, you will find that he has made 6631 posts to SI and is one of its most prolific contributors. Should you care to go back and examine them one by one you will find that many are bullish, and many are bearish. He is not always infallible, and sometimes misreads his turnips (turnups) and tea leaves, but so do we all. I for one have come to respect Zeevs opinion, and have benefited from it one more than one occasion. If you examine his posts for a long time, his accuracy is sometimes uncanny, and even when he seems wrong (WFR moving up ahead of his schedule, ZCAD failing to do so) it somehow seems that with time most of his forecasts come true (WFR came back, and ZCAD took off). Keep in mind that while he is bearish in the short run, he is bullish long term, so his advice to you would be that as a long term investor, both CYMI and VECO are good long term investments. As for the short term, will the semi-equipment stocks retest the lows of 1995? History is on Zeev's side. In the past, downturns in the equipment sector have typically lasted more than one year, and the lowest point for the stock prices in prior retrenchments have tended to come at the very end of the cycle, and not preceeding the downturn. So far the low point was in mid-1995 before the downturn in the equipment sector really started. Will history repeat itself? Who knows? But it could. Invest long term, but don't margin, and then you can ride the stock down and back up again, if necessary. Good luck, and next time you are tempted to criticize Zeev, compare his forecasts on VECO of 23 in February with your constant urging to buy more. So far he has been right. He may not be next time, but he is just as entitled to post his opinions as you are to post yours. Carl