a bit of this and that, and this macro being ...
- whatever the macro goings on, the real trade war matters per history matters, and the real trade war has much to do w/ team china, having had 1982 - 2002 phase of cheap labour, 1992 - 2012 phase of cheap labour and inexpensive capital, and 2002 - 2018 of cheap labour, inexpensive capital and value-add IP, and all those who stand against progression
- whichever way the trade war goes, the inevitable shall rush towards us inexorably, and i feel sure-enough that natural progression shall be peaceful but natural, continued progression, inexorably towards the inevitable
- given so, either the world trade DNA shall be ripped apart, delaying team china progression but speeding up devolutions elsewhere, towards 2025, 2026, and 2032, or
- the whole show continues apace, towards 2025, 2026, 2032
- what capital would fuel such macro progression? had been and continue to guess that china rural land reform, with prospective capacity for US$ 200 trillion of printing over the next 20-30-50 years
Message 27675006 (search under china rural land reform)
Message 29283719
Message 30231862
etc etc
in the midst of all of above, am guessing that team usa making an enemy of both russia and china at the same time is perhaps less than optimum strategy, and the allies of team usa at some juncture shall have to choose independence path or be tee-ed up as proxies in a conflict in which they have less and less stake on the pro side.
whatever else happens, and irrespective of the nature of technology / protocol, if efficacious and valuable, would likely be rolled out faster, more massively and deeply, and less expensively in china than elsewhere, and over time, the weight of the numbers and the trajectory of excel spread sheet trend line overwhelms
this is what the kibitzers that be "history doesn't matter / oliveman / pole climber" sorts do not and cannot understand
in any case, unclear to me maga works in such a case, where maga tries to preclude mcga (china),
however also uncertain what would happen in the case where maga is win-win joined w/ mcga ala 1982 - 2018, but w/ deeper and wider connects. i.e. america rebuilding infrastructure w/ and w/o team china gives rise to different outcomes, i suspect, but have not thought about how different.
i have thought about how miga (india) would be different if done in cooperation w/ mcga, and how it might not even happen if done against mcga.
it is only a simple matter of time point in history.
... and a bit of that micro ...
- take huawei case in point, either huawei expends effort to grow everywhere including creeping within 5-eyes uk, usa, canada, nz, australia, plus tag-alongs germany and japan, or
- huawei goes all-in and devoirs all in africa, russia, se asia, and even including latam, and india, or latam and india tees up expensive 5G and be saddled with built-in cost disadvantage
- should huawei be compelled to surround the centre by taking down the periphery, huawei would do so under a 1st world price umbrella in africa ... se asia ... latam ... india, and keep a price ceiling w/i the 1st world, and gradually but surely cripple the nokia / ericsson, etc etc for this show has been going on for awhile and we know what happened to motorola etc etc
- all of the above be consequences of 1.odd billion folks rejoining global economy after a few hundred years time-out, per history matters
... in the mean time france burning
is france foreshadowing what could happen elsewhere for the very same gamut of feared reasons? do not know but we may have opportunity to find out, before hand if folks in position of power stop to deliberate, and stop to sloganeer, or by expanding evidence if such folks keep busy at what they are currently doing
let us watch & brief, to see if "fiat money inflation in france" would be followed up by "dictate debt reset on planet earth" |
