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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (61536)	12/11/2018 2:51:03 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Respond to of 78715

Hi E_K_S, I took that as a positive as well. Startup who have strong intial relationship probably run on trust more than anything. Longterm contracts allow steady pricing and major market share gains based on low price can be crowd pleasers and traffic builders. Ray Dalio was being interviewed by Bloomberg and he talked about the days he worked for a commodity company. He put together a supply chain that guaranteed price and volume enough such that McDonald's took a chance on offering and promoting Chicken McNuggets. It has since sold A LOT of chicken.<smile> When supply chains guarantee volume purchasing at stabilized prices marketing and good recipes go to work building a loyal owner base. I took that to mean good things a coming from whole foods = well being, much like panera breads. Bob

To: E_K_S who wrote (61536)	12/13/2018 8:51:45 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By richardred Respond to of 78715

Re: UNFI Another Buy in UNFI today at $12.33/share. I am at about a 45% position w/ an avg cost of $14.50/share. Institutional holdings pretty large so all of the activity I believe is selling from some of these institutions causing RSI 8 and new all time lows. Strategy is to continue to add to position every 10% lower and hold firm to the relative value premise AND a it will take management at least 18 months to see results from their recent SVU acquisition. According to TIRANKS UNFI; Based on 13 analysts offering 12 month price targets for UNFI in the last 3 months. The average price target is $23.92 with a high estimate of $36.00 and a low estimate of $14.00. I like to have a few larger GN plays in the portfolio. It can be a bit intimidating to keep buying the stock at new lows, but the value investor must understand it takes time for management to do their fix/restructure. A similar value play I have is BGS with my first Buy 13 months ago and last Buy 6 months ago. This stock has always paid their dividend but each reporting period, management has been paying down debt. Stock was upgraded this week w/ a price target of $37.00/share. BGS already selling above their GN value of $28.00/share, but with a forward PE 14.6, I plan to hold and start selling shares at/above $33.00/share. according to TIPRANKS BGS;Based on 5 analysts offering 12 month price targets for BGS in the last 3 months. The average price target is $32.70 with a high estimate of $37.50 and a low estimate of $28.00. With a 6.2% dividend, it's ok to continue to hold, especially w/ the new CEO (2 years into his tenure), paying down debt and making moves to strengthen their product portvolio. BGS ranks No 8 in my portfolio. NWL ranks No 15 in the portfolio w/ my first Buy 12/2017 and latest Buys 8/2018. Still under it's GN value of $24.66/share based on 2019 earnings of $2.12/share. EPS estimates still vary a lot as company works to restructure their product portfolio. According to TIPRANKS NWL; The average price target is $24.29 with a high estimate of $36.00 and a low estimate of $20.00. I have a few other GN value plays working and even in this down market they are holding firm and pay attractive dividends. Still holding around 15% cash reserves w/ most of that coming from sales in Sept & Oct. I have a watch list set to buy back some of those shares after I see a 20% sell off. Most are down between 12%-15%, so getting close to my GTC Buy points. In this market it is very important to stick w/ your fundamental value approach to selecting new stock candidates and letting go of those that no longer provide the value thesis. Good Investing EKS