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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4481)	1/17/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Sam, Re <<I have noticed that stocks which have exhibited good long-term EPS growth (which appears true at least for AMAT, KLAC, SVGI and UTEK) rarely return to their previous cyclical troughs after completing a cycle.>> Except for two things I would agree: 1) We didn't really go through a complete up cycle. It was rudely interupted by the SEA mess. See #2. 2) Normally, if the semi equip's go through a complete cycle, they significantly excede their previous maximum EPS. For instance AMAT had a peak EPS of 0.50 in Q ending April 28, 1996, but their peak EPS this 'cycle' is only 0.49 (so far). Even if they do surpass the last peak EPS this next quarter, it isn't likely to be by much. Therefore, I would expect that they can fall close to their lows of mid '96 (although probably not quite as low because I suspect that they have a better balance sheet this time.) All JMO. Clark