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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: C.K. Houston who wrote (911)1/17/1998 5:07:00 AM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9818
 
off topic

Welcome back in Houston (checked your email; has been changed). ;-)

John



To: C.K. Houston who wrote (911)1/22/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston  Respond to of 9818
 
PRESIDENT'S COMMISSION ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION
===============================================================

Life is good in America because things work. When we flip the switch, the lights come on. When we turn the tap, clean water flows. When we pick up the phone, our call goes through. We are able to assume that things will work because our infrastructures are highly developed and highly effective.

By infrastructure we mean more than just a collection of individual companies engaged in related activities; we mean a network of independent, mostly privately-owned, man-made systems and processes that function collaboratively and synergistically to produce and distribute a continuous flow of essential goods and services.

Businesses, too, depend on infrastructures. Private companies are able to guarantee on-time performance because our infrastructures permit low cost transport and instantaneous tracking of shipments. Managers take for granted that the goods and services essential to their operations will be there when needed.

Reliable and secure infrastructures are thus the foundation for creating the wealth of our nation and our quality of life as a people. They are fundamental to development and projection of the military power that enables our diplomacy to be effective. They make it possible for us to enjoy our inalienable rights and take advantage of the freedoms on which our nation was founded.

Certain national infrastructures are so vital that their incapacity or destruction would have a debilitating impact on the defense or economic security of the United States. These critical infrastructures include telecommunications, electrical power systems, gas and oil storage and transportation, banking and finance, transportation, water supply systems, emergency services (including medical, police, fire, and rescue), and continuity of government.

EXCERPT
President William J. Clinton
"A National Security Strategy for a New Century," May 1997

============================================================
NATION'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
============================================================
Where you'll find BILLIONS of embedded systems.

Telecommunications
Networks and systems that support the transmission and exchange of electronic communications among and between end-users (such as networked computers).

Electrical Power Systems
Generation stations, transmission and distribution networks that create and supply electricity to end-users so that end-users achieve and maintain nominal functionality, including the transportation and storage of fuel essential to that system.

Gas & Oil Production, Storage & Transportation
Holding facilities for natural gas, crude & refined petroleum, and petroleum-derived fuels, the refining and processing facilities for these fuels and the pipelines, ships, trucks, and rail systems that transport these commodities from their source to systems that are dependent upon gas and oil in one of their useful forms.

Banking and Finance
Retail and commercial organizations, investment institutions, exchange boards, trading houses, and reserve systems, and associated operational organizations, government operations, and support entities, that are involved in all manner of monetary transactions, including its storage for saving purposes, its investment for income purposes, its exchange for payment purposes, and its disbursement in the form of loans and other financial instruments.

Transportation
Aviation, rail, highway, and aquatic vehicles, conduits, and support systems by which people and goods are moved from a point-of-origin to a destination point in order to support and complete matters of commerce, government operations, and personal affairs.

Water Supply Systems
Sources of water, reservoirs and holding facilities, aqueducts and other transport systems, the filtration and cleaning systems, the pipelines, the cooling systems and other delivery mechanisms that provide for domestic and industrial applications, including systems for dealing with waste water and fire fighting.

Emergency Services
Medical, police, fire and rescue systems and personnel that are called upon when an individual or community is responding to a public health or safety incident where speed and efficiency are necessary.

Continuity of Government Services
Operations and services of governments at federal, state, and local levels critical to the functioning of the nation's systems, i.e., public health, safety, and welfare.

===========================================================
YEAR 2000 EMBEDDED SYSTEMS & IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURE
===========================================================

The "Embedded Systems" Year 2000 problem is often confused with the IS (Information Systems) Y2K problem. But, they are distinctly different issues.

The Y2K Embedded System problem has the potential to be a far greater risk to our Infrastructure than IS issues.

INFORMATION SYSTEMS (IS, IT or MIS)
Programmers fix 'Software' used primarily in "offices".

EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
Engineers fix "Firmware" used on "plant floors" and in "devices".

Embedded systems is the code built into special-purpose microchips that inhabit just about every modern electronic device. They're found in power plants, manufacturing facilities, water and sewage systems, medical devices and military equipment. It also includes planes, trains, automobiles, elevators, phones, microwaves, ships, alarm systems and generally anything that goes buzz or beep.

Billions of embedded systems are out there ... and EACH must be tested individually.

Here's a good place to start to understand the issues at hand

CK HOUSTON'S EMBEDDED SYSTEM INDEX: Revised 1/22/98
Message 3232991

CK HOUSTON
Quest@hypercon.com



To: C.K. Houston who wrote (911)1/23/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
The simple fact to grab and hold onto is that embedded systems underpin the whole of the world's manufacturing and engineering base.
=================================================================

The world's energy supplies (oil, gas, coal, nuclear) depend on embedded systems. Planes fly, and ships sail, based on embedded systems. Pharmaceutical industries use embedded systems to create the world's drug supply. The food we eat, the drink we consume, primarily comes from processes which depend on embedded systems. Not to mention clean water. And, of course, defence of the realm is heavily based on embedded systems. And car manufacture. And railway networks. And broadcast media. And communications. And so on.

So real-time and embedded systems are prime components of global
infrastructure.
They are also the commercial building blocks of engineering and manufacturing worldwide. So addressing the Year 2000 problems for these systems is at least as important as doing it for banking and financial institutions. Probably more so. And fixing the problems is more complicated.

It's true that all of the problems which exist in traditional big IT applications also exist in real-time and embedded systems. So we can have problems arising at processor level, or from operating systems, packages/tools, and bespoke applications. The technical solutions are also much the same - some replacements, some modifications, some
workarounds.

But the big difference is the culture which surrounds real-time or embedded systems in production environments. Real-time systems can be very complex, and they are used to control or monitor very high-value processes.

Typically, a large installation (e.g., a petrochemical refinery, oil/gas platform, power station) will have scores of real-time systems. They have been bought for different reasons by different people over the years, usually mirroring the gradual development of the installation. The production processes are now dependent on the
successful continuous operation of the real-time systems.

Because the production processes are so valuable, production managers and engineering staff fear the failure of real-time systems. When real-time systems fail, high-value processes shut down, and the costsof unexpected shutdowns can be enormous.

For oil platforms, pharmaceutical manufacturers or power stations, the cost of an unexpected shutdown can be hundreds of thousands of pounds. Even for small manufacturing companies, the costs are crucial, because the production process is their only true source of income.

The pressure to keep the production process running is great. As a result, production managers resist changes to embedded systems on the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it basis". This means that when the next version of the operating system comes along, it is not automatically installed.

If improved functionality could be achieved by upgrading bespoke software, it is not acted upon. Hardware which is no longer supported by the manufacturer remains in use. The result is a bunch of ageing systems, based on languages, packages and processors for which the skills are gradually being lost.

Because of this culture, fixing the Year2000 problems is more complicated than for banking or administrative applications. The systems are more difficult to audit, because some are so old that the information about them has literally been lost. Systems dating from the late 70s and early 80s are pretty common.

Doing the triage is complicated, because there is a risk that taking the system through a mock millennium change will cause the process to fail, with huge cost penalties. Applying the fixes is fraught, again because of the potential to cause a production failure.

So to fix the problems, you need people who understand embedded systems technology, the production processes, and the commercial impact of mistakes in a manufacturing environment.

These people are very, very thin on the ground. There are not many companies who specialise in real-time and embedded systems.

From what we can see, few manufacturing companies have recognised the scale of the problem yet. Systems are not yet failing, because real-time systems tend to have a lookahead of less than a month. So the failures will come late in 1999. Nonetheless, from our work over the past six months in this area, we know that the likelihood of failure of embedded systems is high.

The companies we are working with are in the vanguard. The big organisations might be able to sort themselves out by throwing money at the problem, though resources will be very scarce.

The small manufacturers are in trouble - most of them don't know they have a potential problem, and when they find out, they'll find it very difficult to compete with the big boys for decent skilled staff.

Remember, of course, that around the office, embedded systems are widespread - personnel tracking systems, PABX and Fax machines, security access, heating and air conditioning, etc. Outside the office environment, humble domestic appliances, alarms systems, video recorders and the like also use embedded systems. For the most part, the failure of these systems will have nuisance value, and I don't worry too much about that. Between here and the Year 2000, we only have time for the important problems.

Gerry Docherty
Real Time Engineering Ltd.

Academy House, Academy Park,
Glasgow G51 1PR
United Kingdom
+44 141 427 4142. ged@rtel.co.uk