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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Scribe who wrote (13732)	1/17/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: janski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

I am not so sure using statistics to determine Ancor's future stock price is such a good idea. If you recall last year around the end of July Ancor announced an OEM deal with BULL. At the time, the stock was trading at roughly 10$/share. Today, 6 months later, the stock is roughly at 5 - 50% retracement. I won't go into a statistical model to show what the price might be after signing 2, 3, or 6 OEMs such as that one. That does bring a question, again. What is going on with Bull? It has been six months since the agreement was officially signed. Realistically, what can one expect from all those minor OEMs which I'm sure there is plenty of to be signed? What is the lead time from signing such OEMs to actuall product shipments? Having some idea about that could help determine when any revenue of significance might finally come in to at least allow them to break even and prevent repeated need for additional financing and continued dilution. Assuming you bought the stock 2 years ago, if there is going to be a need for a couple more rounds of financing the risk/reward ratio for owning it too early is getting thinner and thinner.

To: Steve Scribe who wrote (13732)	1/17/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: nic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29386

Steve, your calculations assume that all OEM decisions are made independent of each other. However, OEM decisions are likely to correlate in two ways: 1) as a result of being based on similar criteria, and 2) as a consequence of an OEM being aware of (and influenced by) preceding OEM decisions. The upshot is that there's a feedback effect at work here that IMHO makes the extreme scenarios (Ancor winning or losing almost all big OEMs) far more likely than your calculations would suggest. So let's win them all! ;-) - nic