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To: Return to Sender who wrote (82022)	12/18/2018 8:40:02 AM
From: Sam	2 Recommendations Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom Return to Sender Respond to of 95487

Micron earnings: Hunkering down for the winter with hopes of a summer turnaround By Wallace Witkowski Published: Dec 18, 2018 8:33 a.m. ET marketwatch.com After claiming that any chip cycle will be a short one, Micron CEO will now have to prove it in the coming months Micron Technology Inc. (MU) will likely be playing a cleanup game when it reports earnings Tuesday, with hopes of a bounceback next year that proves any down cycle is a short one. Micron (MU) is scheduled to report fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday. The memory-chip maker is waiting out suppliers that are clearing out overstocked inventories, and redirecting supply chains to reduce the impact of tariffs. The best investors can hope for is tweaks to performance where Micron can as it expects revenue on the low end of its forecast, as the company announced in late November (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/micron-stock-falls-as- analysts-weigh-in-on-update-to-outlook-2018-11-29). Micron has become a victim of its own success. As memory-chip prices skyrocketed this year, so did the company's stock price, to levels not seen since 2000 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/microns-stock-trades-at-highest-level-since-dot- com-bust-2018-05-29). With chip prices high, many suppliers overstocked their inventories to lock in prices before they went any higher, resulting in a broad oversupply that has dented short-term demand and, with that, prices. At the company's inaugural Insight 2018 conference in San Francisco in October, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said new uses for memory chips, such as in data centers and Internet of Things devices, have altered the old supply and demand cycle (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/micron-ceo-memory-chip-market-is-structurally-different-in-post-pc-world- 2018-10-10), and that the industry is now in a place where oversupply periods will tend to be shorter than before. Opinion: 2019 won't be kind to semiconductor stocks, but you might still make money with this strategy (http:// www.marketwatch.com/story/quality-semiconductor-stocks-may-rise-to-the-top-as-sales-growth-slows-2018-12-11) Analysts at Nomura expect a turnaround in the memory chip market sometime in the first half of 2019 after it experiences "a short-term hard landing like a mini downturn" in the first calendar quarter. "Customers are not only putting severe pressure on prices but also reducing quantities by delaying procurement, and consuming their inventories," Nomura said in a note. "DRAM makers have been responding to customers' measures by expanding inventories and cutting capex rather than accepting customers' severe price cut requests." DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, is the type of memory commonly used in PCs and servers, as opposed to NAND chips, which are the flash memory chips that are used in USB drives and smaller devices such as digital cameras. "The NAND market, which entered its downturn one year earlier than DRAM, is also continuing its hard landing," Nomura noted. "However, we expect the NAND price decline to slow down and the NAND market to recover gradually from 2Q19." What to expect (https://asset.wsj.net/dynamic-insets/charts/cdc_be495a41626c653112076ceb_embed.html) Earnings: Of the 29 analysts surveyed by FactSet, Micron on average is expected to post adjusted earnings of $2.95 a share, down from $3.13 a share expected at the beginning of the quarter, prior to Micron forecasting $2.88 to $3.02 a share. In late November, Micron said it expects earnings to come in above the range's $2.95 midpoint. Estimize, a software platform that uses crowdsourcing from hedge-fund executives, brokerages, buy-side analysts and others, calls for earnings of $3.03 a share. (https://asset.wsj.net/dynamic-insets/charts/cdc_ad37548892d5c5e54edf8d5f_embed.html) Revenue: Wall Street expects revenue of $8 billion from Micron, according to 26 analysts polled by FactSet. That's down from $8.52 billion forecast at the beginning of the quarter, prior to Micron forecasting revenue of $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion. Estimize expects revenue of $8.1 billion. Analysts expect sales of DRAM to rise 25% to $5.73 billion. Wall Street has forecast a 5.3% rise to $1.98 billion in sales of NAND chips. (https://asset.wsj.net/dynamic-insets/charts/cdc_bb6118987cb7a5b48e8b9b8a_embed.html) Stock movement: Micron shares have dropped 24% since the company's last earnings report back in late September, following a disappointing outlook (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/micron-stock-gains-as-earnings-deflect-doubts-about- memory-market-2018-09-20). In comparison, the S&P 500 as fallen 9.6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has dropped 11.9%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index has declined 13.9% since Micron's last earnings report. What analysts are saying Stifel analyst Kevin Cassidy, who has a buy rating and a $100 target price on Micron, noted that Micron is focusing on becoming more efficient as the chip market takes a breather. "We believe Micron is continuing to reduce its production costs through technology transitions, driving [gross margins] above prior expectations," Cassidy said, adding that Micron's recent outlook update showed "further evidence of a rational memory market as the memory companies manage for profitability rather than market share." Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh, who has a buy and a $54 price target, pointed to Micron's expected 50 to 100 basis point gross margin hit from tariffs for the quarter, but expects that to be eliminated going forward as the company repositions its supply chain. Opinion: The chip slowdown is real, but how bad will it be? (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-chip-slowdown-is- real-but-how-bad-will-it-be-2018-11-15) MKM Partners analyst Ruben Roy, who has a buy rating and $50 price target, said Micron still faces near-term challenges in DRAM demand and NAND pricing, but he remains positive on the stock long term. "While we are now expecting a near-term revenue bottom in fiscal Q3 (May), we believe that continued management execution on cost improvements and profitability, coupled with achieving cash flow and de-levering milestones should ultimately drive multiple expansion for MU shares." Of the 34 analysts who cover Micron, 21 have buy or overweight ratings, 12 have hold ratings and one has an underweight rating. Since November, 12 analysts have cut their price targets on the stock for an average price target of $59.55, down from an average of $76.04 a quarter ago, according to FactSet.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (82022)

12/18/2018 7:39:16 PM

From: Return to Sender

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Gottfried

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95487

51% Downside Volume on the NYSE - 51% Upside Volume on the NASDAQ:

wsj.com

Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Notice to readers: As of 3/3/11, Closing ARMS Index (TRIN) calculation is based on composite data. Click here for historical data prior to 3/3/11.

NYSE	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	3,077	3,081	3,076
Advances	1,370	403	1,345
Declines	1,636	2,628	1,649
Unchanged	71	50	82
New highs	3	5	37
New lows	737	883	289
Adv. volume*	484,119,868	148,370,217	363,226,810
Decl. volume*	556,851,870	987,635,763	502,369,204
Total volume*	1,072,632,559	1,148,233,457	885,800,179
Closing tick	-73	-563	-148
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	0.94	0.98	1.18
Block trades*	7,397	7,419	7,050
Adv. volume	2,018,609,737	609,400,318	1,545,562,551
Decl. volume	2,276,254,778	3,904,986,803	2,241,907,478
Total volume	4,433,783,695	4,554,277,418	3,867,396,647
Nasdaq	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	3,185	3,194	3,175
Advances	1,277	587	1,384
Declines	1,830	2,533	1,678
Unchanged	78	74	113
New highs	13	11	21
New lows	678	739	287
Closing tick	-336	-773	-50
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	0.67	1.19	0.80
Block trades	9,652	10,066	7,598
Adv. volume	1,288,394,846	423,950,798	1,116,297,861
Decl. volume	1,238,945,656	2,178,267,193	1,081,203,824
Total volume	2,546,140,767	2,617,707,545	2,219,768,459
NYSE American	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	303	308	305
Advances	107	75	107
Declines	182	224	170
Unchanged	14	9	28
New highs	...	1	1
New lows	53	56	18
Adv. volume*	2,543,342	4,188,295	2,209,025
Decl. volume*	8,132,576	7,878,046	5,463,175
Total volume*	11,248,805	12,159,449	8,096,562
Closing tick	-63	-45	-38
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	1.65	0.49	1.38
Block trades*	160	165	80
Adv. volume	27,257,910	51,402,079	23,891,599
Decl. volume	76,724,285	75,568,122	52,461,040
Total volume	106,595,616	127,196,298	79,973,162
NYSE Arca	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	1,566	1,562	1,566
Advances	922	339	770
Declines	623	1,210	766
Unchanged	21	13	30
New highs	29	33	16
New lows	378	573	69
Adv. volume*	211,585,411	85,196,145	214,705,849
Decl. volume*	191,083,306	338,204,308	132,180,639
Total volume*	403,625,882	424,423,436	349,417,403
Closing tick	+57	-152	-158
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	1.48	1.13	0.60
Block trades*	2,321	2,315	2,022
Adv. volume	967,947,446	394,527,232	1,035,754,734
Decl. volume	967,211,926	1,592,125,716	618,455,008
Total volume	1,942,989,928	1,995,056,099	1,673,954,747

*Primary market NYSE, NYSE American or NYSE Arca only. †Compares the ratio of advancing to declining issues with the ratio of volume of shares rising and falling. Arms Index or TRIN = (advancing issues / declining issues) / (composite volume of advancing issues / composite volume of declining issues.) Generally, an Arms of less than 1.00 indicates buying demand; above 1.00 indicates selling pressure.

RtS