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Pastimes : From A to Zeev" -- SI Sacks Zeev -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Denice who wrote (173)	1/17/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 708

Denice, your post is one of the best compliments I have received on SI and for such posts it is worth it to stay on, despite the abuse dished out on some threads. If anyone else still read this forsaken thread, here is what the turnips are saying short and medium term. Many markets developments come in waves, often three legs. The Asian affair has gone through two such events, the gestation period from the failing of a large Korean chaebol in January 1997 until the beginning of the domino decline of various currencies and markets in Korea, Thailand,Indonesia, Malaysia, Philipines and the markets in Singapore and Japan. The second leg just this month when these markets actually collapsed with their respective currencies. This led to what I believe was the first leg down in our own bear market (concentrated in high techs, particularly those exposed to the rim such as the semi-equip and the networkers), culminating in the October minimassacre. We are now in the midst of figuring out how the various rescue missions (from IMF loans to revaluing real estate on Japanes financial institutions books) to prevent or at least minimize the asian meltdown from spreading and inducing world wide competitive currency devalutions and assets write down (and waves of bankrupcies in Asia) is working out. And our markets still appears, on the surface, to be "immune" to the rim's problems. The next phase down in our markets could occur very shortly (I believe it will start later next week) when the financial world will recognize that real damage to world stability (financial and political) has occurred. Such instability will IMHO delay infrastructure plans in the rim (wireless and networks, as well as investments in semis) and thus reduce the competitive pressure on other participants outside the rim to deploy major projects to keep their own competitiveness. Once this is recognized (and it will show up in BTB value smaller than 1 for more and more of the semi-equip companies), another down leg in our market could be expected (once again, in my opinion and mine only). I believe this will cause a strong bearish move under the October lows culimnating late in February early in March with the end of the second leg down. The third leg down in our markets (from a spirited spring rally through early April?) will be precipitated once dismal first quarter results will start flowing in late in April/early May (and together with earning warnings early in April), to bring us back down to at least a retest of the early March lows. Then, I believe the market will be faced with a "wall of worries" including the realities of lower earnings (and some losses) and less rosy looking forward statements, but the markets will also be facing long term interest rates around 5.5%, and slowly slowly, people are going to recognize that the end of the world is not here and valuations with a Dow in the low 6000 and interest rates at 5.5% are simply too low, setting the stage for a resumption of the bull market (my turnips are showing 9000 on the Dow before the end of Spring 1999). A trigger for the resumption of the bull might be an actual lowering of the Fed discount rate in June. Zeev

To: Denice who wrote (173)	1/17/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: Amots	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 708

Denice. In order to follow Zeev posts (the same as I do), Click on his name to get his profile and then "Bookmark" the profile (on the bottom). You can then go to Pepole Bookmarks in your massage manger and follow his posts. Good luck and welcome Amots