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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Antol who wrote (19676)	1/17/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Elmo Gregory	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Hi Joe - Any guess as to what Novell will report for this quarter? First Call is still estimating $0.02 but they have been wrong before. Novonyx may provide a creative accounting opportunity for Novell. Novell wanted to keep their financial involvement in Novonyx a secret in the beginning but now it may be to their advantage to claim the startup and R & D costs to offset another bad quarter...if they can do that. Regards, Elmo P.S. Did you look at the Insider trading report that is available from Schwab500? The report covers several years of activity.

To: Joe Antol who wrote (19676)	1/17/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: miraje	Respond to of 42771

OTOTOT Joe, It's always the right decision to sell at a profit <VBG>. I learned a lesson with INTC leaps last year. Had a double but held due to tax worries and good old fashioned greed. I'm now back to just over my entry point. Live and learn <sigh>... Hope CPQ does well for you. I missed the ride up on the major box makers because I worried about lower margins and profit squeezes due to intense competition. As it turned out, the big fish (DELL,CPQ) fed on the minnows and did quite well. I have seen too many investors fall into the trap of loving a company and/or its products and fail to step back and take a hard rational look at future business prospects in the real world. I am posting this from a PC with an AMD CPU (works great) but I wouldn't put a nickel into the stock of that bungling outfit. I make a living trading and investing in tech stocks and it's tough to keep emotions out of the picture, but I really try. On balance, so far so good <gg>. Regards, JB

To: Joe Antol who wrote (19676)	1/17/1998 5:23:00 PM
From: Kashish King	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Joe, it was a huge mistake to believe that Novell ever had any sort of technical superiority other than having been in the game long enough to keep a notch or two ahead of MSFT in this space. Being ahead with a bucket of bolts because you have been hacking, patching and cobbling your proprietary tangle for x years longer than the competition doesn't make you superior; it makes you first. The reason I bring this up is that I think you are making a mistake with Microsoft as they are about to get Microsoft'ed themselves by IBM and Sun Microsystems. Naturally I am talking about distributed computing technology in the form of Java. Forget all the hype; forget all the noise; forget all the claims to technical superiority; forget the fact that Java software is growing exponentially. Focus instead on the political nature of this clearly superior technology. There is a strong aversion to Microsoft's dominance in France, England, California, Japan, Germany, Australia and elswhere; however, that's only half the story. Consider the banks, retailers, broadcasters and consider what choice they will make given the availability of applications for an open, industry standard software infrastructure. Ironically, this is precisely whey IBM, Sun, Oracle and others will seriously damage Microsoft's revenue stream. Sure, Java and CORBA technologies are vastly superior to Microsoft's home-brewed answers, but the political winds are what will drive it forward. Compare Microsoft's price/revenues ratio to that of IBM, Sun, Intel and others and you can see where Microsoft has already priced in the next 5 years worth of growth. They are going to crash, it's just a matter of time. IBM rakes in excess of 80 billion compared to Microsoft's 12. Microsoft has a long way to fall.