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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (6191)	1/19/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: Pete Young	Respond to of 116788

I have a speculation on the bottom for the POG. From 1830 to the 1920's (with the exception of the inflation caused by the paper dollar of the Civil War) the POG was ~$20. Just before FDR made it illegal to own in Oct 1933, and pushed the price up by fiat shortly thereafter (which was explained later (unconvincingly to me)as an attempt to run agricultural prices up from their ruinous bottoms) the price dropped to an all time low of $17. Assuming that a dollar now is worth about a tenth of of a 1920's dollar, wouldn't that mean that the most probable extreme deflation scenario low for gold could be $200, or even $170 on an extreme dip? I know that this leaves out all the changes in supply/demand since then (but do they cancel each other out?), and may be entirely too simplistic, but why isn't this idea at least somewhat valid?