i love this meaningless fluff... BEFORE I BEGIN, THOUGH, I WAS SHOCKED TO READ THROUGH THE WHOLE ARTICLE AND SEE THAT NO DISCUSSION REGARDING CROSSOVER TO 64 MB AND ITS IMPACT ON DRAM SUPPLY AND THE COST OF CHIPS. NONE. WHAT COULD BE MORE IMPORTANT AT THIS JUNCTURE? HEY, THEY TOUTED DEMAND, THOUGH. AND YES, "DEMAND CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRONG." HO HO HO HO HO! ENJOY...
>>Nobody is cheaper than Micron Technology Inc. at making dynamic random access memory chips, or DRAMs, used in personal computers and consumer electronics.<<
does this gentleman claim to know what the foreign competitors costs for making dram are? even if he does, is he talking gross or net? is mu better by $0.01 or $3.00 (excuse me, but the amount is of supreme importance). of course, this dolt can't give any specifics b/c his intent is not to make his statement truly meaning. just misleading, imho.
sounds like another "dram demand continues to remain strong" bullsh*t statement w/o any back up evidence. in fact, i know where he got it. mu mismangament saying they "believe" that is the case. ever had a "belief" that was wrong? i bet you can't get sued if you are wrong for a "belief." me thinks the wording is by no accident ;-)
>>That's a blessing. Prices for 16-megabit DRAM recently plunged to less than $3 each<<
not when your net cost is $4.70 it isn't a blessing. what a dolt. he doesn't think losing a $1.00 per uit is worthy of some kind of warning? instead he uses the term "blessing." folks, just like tk and kippy bablowhard tried to bullsh*t you, so goes this dolt. he's either dumb or sinister.
>>Now, some Micron investors think chip prices -- and Micron's stock -- are about to rise.<<
it already has risen 40%.
>>Korea's chip makers are reeling from a financial crisis that has left them short of cash and unable to complete some of the chip plants they have planned.<<
true, korea is in a crunch. but, so is mu after borrowing $500 mil and having a negative cash flow for many months - and the future looks bleak 6-9 months out.
''One fine day, the Koreans won't be able to make huge investments to recklessly chase'' the DRAM market, said Jim Glickenhaus, a partner at Glickenhaus & Co. in New York, which owned 2.38 million Micron shares as of September.<<
now this is funny. i've been berated for looking at a website and using third grade math to very precisely (no, not to the penny, but in magnitude and direction - AND I WAS DEFINITELY NOT THE ONLY ONE) predict mu earnings. AND I AGREE.
so now they quote mr. glicker as owning 2.3 million shares of mu when it was near its absurd high of $60. dumb people with this kind of money are not easy to find. enjoy this idiot while he's out in the public view.
>>Glickenhaus and other investors are betting Micron is in a better position than its rivals when chip prices rise.<<
yes, and what has his return been since he made this bet in september? -50%? HO HO HO HO HO HO ;-)
>>Already, Korean companies are either thinking about or putting planned chip plants on hold. Last month, Dongbu Group said that it may delay a $1.7 billion DRAM plant that it planned to build with International Business Machines Corp.<<
OH, AND LEHI WASN'T PUT ON HOLD ;-) will dongbu put on hold a fab that will creat wild profits like mu investors seem to think will eventually show up? hello?
>>Samsung, the world's biggest DRAM maker<<
didn't somebody say samsung was a bit player now? uh oh, david will start quoting it as fact and say "korea admitted it on this thread." HO HO HO HO HO!
>>has delayed a $500 million expansion of its DRAM wafer plant in Austin, Texas. Samsung, LG Semiconductor and Hyundai Electronics Industries Co. are expected to invest only $3.3 billion in new plants in 1998, down 40 percent from last year, according to Dataquest Inc.<<
SO, INVESTMENT IS DOWN. WHY? DUH, THE PLAYERS THINK THAT DEMAND (WHICH CONTINUES TO BE STRONG - HO HO HO HO HO! ) WILL NOT CACH UP WITH SUPPLY TO MAKE THE INVESTEMNTS PROFITABLE.
fabs are still going up, though and this will increase supply.
>>And Micron itself has kept construction on hold. Completion of a half-built $2.5 billion fabrication plant planned for Lehi, Utah, has been on hold for nearly two years.<<
now, this was a big negative for the koreans but their is no negative connotation for mu. hmmmmmm...
>>Korean companies also may find it hard to justify keeping existing plants operating largely because of the big drop in the Korean currency, the won, down 45 percent against the dollar in the past three months. That raises prices Korean companies must pay for imported supplies such as silicon wafers and chip-making equipment. Hyundai Electronics, Korea's No. 3 chip maker, spends about $1 billion a year on raw materials, most of it imported. Hyundai also had $2.9 billion of debt denominated in foreign currencies at the end of June. That debt becomes more expensive to pay off every time the Korean won falls. Unfortunately for Micron, Korea's woes also mean that things could get worse before they get better. Analysts said Korean chip companies are selling inventory at almost any price to get the U.S. dollars they need.<<
this is a double edged sword for mu. the koreans have trouble, for sure. however, mu has more trouble than they are letting on. first, the koreans pay more for raw materials, but they also get more $$ selling to the us. asian companies now have to pay a premium for mu's dram b/c of currency issues.
also, the reason the koreans can get rid of inventory is b/c of an oversupply issue that hasn't worked itself out.
>>Analysts estimate Micron's production costs at about $3 per
16-megabit chip, compared with $4 to $4.50 for the Korean manufacturers.<<
gee, these are the same analysts that can't predict mu earnings 3 months in advance when i can come real close using third grade math. do you wonder who their source is for this trash? i'd bet mu mismanagement. i hate to let people know this but foreign companies don't run over here just to tell analysts what their cost structure is. it is highly proprietary. that is why they "estimate." they don't know. since they have an agenda they 'estimate" to their own personal advantage - ala tom hurlcrap.
>>Micron Chief Executive Officer Steve Appleton blames the Koreans for the glut in the memory-chip market, and he is incensed the United States is helping with a multibillion-dollar bailout of the country. He is lobbying Congress to make sure none of that money goes to build DRAM plants that the world does not need.<<
nice spin, applesauce. the fact the koreans held back inventory and you grew supply faster than anybody around (and breagged about it!) makes them the cause of the glut and you guiltless, huh? kiss my butt and go cry to uncle sugar for some help.
>>''Their companies mismanaged the business and now we're going to save them,'' Appleton said in an interview. ''Our tax dollars are being spent to put us out of a job.''<<
if the dram companies aren't needed then they must not be profitable, applesauce. if they were then they'd be needed. is this an admission of the the reality of the industry going forward, applesauce? no profits?
btw, they did mismanage. they should not have held back inventory and your company wouldve never made more than a dime per q.
>>Playing With Pain: Investors who own Micron stock are counting on Appleton to win his fight with the Koreans. The 37-year-old former college tennis star does not give up. After breaking his right thumb, he learned to play left-handed.<<
how glamorous ;-)
>>Appleton says any increase in chip prices will drop almost straight to the Boise-based company's bottom line because costs are so tightly controlled. If prices rise by 25 cents for each of the estimated 84 million DRAM chips that Micron produces each quarter, the company takes in another $12 million in sales.<<
bzzzzzz bzzzzzz bzzzzz - bullshit meeter goes off!!!
of course any price increase goes to the bottom line. so does every price decrease (of which there have been many, many, many, many, many more! ;-) above and beyond cost reductions. asps have been falling faster than costs for a while now and continue to do so this q. this is meaningless banter and i thrash meaningless banter.
and, to keep lary off my back, this will impact FUTURE earnings ;-)
>>Because the market for chips is highly volatile, a price rise could start any day, analysts say.<<
as it could go down as has been the trend. this remeinds me of hurlcrap picking 10 bottoms and no tops for dram pricing. now that is objective research ;-)
>>And demand is not a problem because more and more of the chips are making their way into computers, automobiles and appliances.<<
demand is not a problem. <b?this dolt doesn't understand basic economics. sounds like he's been talking to bablowhard ;-)
>>''There is more computing power in your car these days than there was in Apollo rockets,'' said Micron investor Glickenhaus, who bought more Micron stock in recent weeks.<<
so what? we're pretty deep in the barrell now, aren't we? glib facts to justify massive losses b/c of a stupid investment.
>>Micron fans also have history on their side. A combination of strong demand and a chip shortage sent DRAM prices skyward earlier in the decade, boosting Micron's stock almost fivefold to a record high of 94 3/8 in September 1995.<<
thanks to larry's insightful commentary we all know history doesn't mean sh*t. so why is it part of the analysis? nothing more substantive is available, maybe?
>>With digital video disk players and a host of memory-hungry Internet appliances coming out, DRAM could have its day again.<<
yes, "dram demand continues to remain strong." oh, i love that one. BEAUTIFUL AND ARTFULLY CRAFTED ;-)
>>Micron investors can only hope that Appleton persuades policy-makers in Washington and financiers in New York not to give Korea and its chip makers too much help.<<
YEP, HOPEFULLY UNCLE SUGAR TAKES CARE OF MU INVESTORS ;-)
would somebody please tell thomas to get his effinger out of his nose and do some real research? ;-) |
