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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (43766)	1/17/1998 4:33:00 PM
From: sheila rothstein	Respond to of 58324

Gary, In order for the institutions to take up a large no. of shares IOM needs a great PR guy. I think you would fit that bill. SR

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (43766)	1/17/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: Neil_L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58324

Another thought I been mulling over recently...are we seeing the start of a paradigm shift away from fixed hard drives (for the most part) towards removable storage. If so, this would take a number of years before its completely evident, so its pure speculation. But IMO, at least a small part of the HDD companies troubles are attributable to IOM and what its done to ignite an insatiable appetite for removable storage. Neil.

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (43766)	1/17/1998 6:44:00 PM
From: John P. Henrie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58324

RE: Must Read 4QTR97 Earnings Dispite what some would like you to believe, IOM has had strong earnings growth. And there are some factors that should be considered when an individual is trying to guesstimate this and future quarter earnings. Earnings Growth: Over the last year EPSgrowth has been approximately 100% when comparing 1996 to 1997. Some posters have mentioned IOM's $.15 EPS for the 4QTR96; however, they have neglected to mention that the number includes a $.04 a share extraordinary charge (the "everything and the kitchen sink" charge). When companies take charges, like these, they usually push the limits of accounting principles to ensure that there is no room for surprises in the up coming year. FWIW, one of my accounting friends tells me that if the accrued charges/expense do not occur within 12 months that the company has to reverse whatever is left over. Something to think about. Part Shortages/Backlog: Based on the last conference call, it is my opinion that part shortages have not been a problem this quarter. If this is truly the case, then the only thing that caused backorders is demand. Given the multi-hundred million dollar backlog and the product demand that occurs in the fourth quarter, it looks like product sells went extrememly well in the fourth quarter. OEM Sells: Increasing everyday and probably the biggest factor impacting product availability in the stores. People have said these are lower margin sells. I wonder how much lower. OEMs, I think, are largely buying the Atapi drives (correct me if I am wrong) which I hear are a lot less expensive to build (any techies willing to take a stab at cost). Product Pricing: Given strong demand, it appears that pricing on IOM products is pretty firm. I think Reseller has provided us with some good information indicating this. Ty/tie Ratio: Ty ratio is disk sold during the quarter divided by drives sold during the quarter. When zips were first sold, the ty ratio was high because the consumers were "tech heads" who used a lot of disks. The ty ratio suffered a little when the purchasers became more wide ranged (techs and normal joes like me). The zip base is getting pretty big and the ty ratio should start to improve ( I believe materially). Now we have over 11 million zip users compared to 5 million last year. Think about it. Summary: Historical year to year and XQTRXX to XQTRXX growth approximately 100%. No earnings surprises (4qtr96 charge took care of that). Part shortage problem gone, huge backlog, and the FOURTH QUARTER. IOM producing at capacity with lingering backorders is an indication that demand has been very strong. Given the zip base, the Ty/tie ratio should be improving. And to recoin a familiar phrase, "its the disks stupid" Bottom Line: IOM did $.095 (post split) 4QTR96 when you ad back the charge. Just assuming that it would continue earnings growth trends for the short-term would suggest IOM will do $.19 4QTR97. I would go higher (4QTR97 didn't have the problems that existed in 4QTR96 and there wasn't as many OEMs and the backlog was much smaller in 4QTR96); however, IOM has, in the past, been very conservative when reporting EPS. We have regularly seen IOM take charges in the quarter being reported to account for planned expenses in the upcoming quarter. I have no reason to believe that they would stray from this practice. The only thing that would make their management of EPS to the conservative side difficult is if they have to reverse any of the previous "kitchen sink" charge taken in 4QTR96 Anyway, I think we very well see $.19 or better. Won't be long (1/22) before you will see my way of thinking or laugh me out of the room. My prediction isn't the most important thing here. Rather its the facts that I described above. Read them and make your own assessment. Later, John

To: Gary Wisdom who wrote (43766)	1/17/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Rocky Reid	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 58324

>>Unfortunately, until those things happen, we'll have to be satisfied with the stock doubling every 12 months. << Gary, quit with the wishful fantasy, and look at a 2 year chart of IOM. The value of IOM is right where it was at about April/May 1996. This is coming up upon nearly 2 years of painful stagnation if you have been that long-term. Also, lest we forget, that IOM is 60% down from its all-time high. This, combined with it's recent stagnation, along with a bumbling stock split, and you have the recipe for a whole mess of digruntled investors ready to bolt for better performing stocks as the techs start rebounding. There is a whole market full of stocks with better 2 year performance than IOM. Some story stock. IOM has proven itself as little more than an Internet Hype Stock whose hype was fresh and new more than 2 years ago. This is Ancient History by Wall Street standards.