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Non-Tech : Radica Games (RADA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayne who wrote (2020)	1/17/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: j rector	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7111

wayne, when I use Q4 as a comparison quarter, I get somewhere between $.44 and $.56 for Q1, but when I do my comparisons using Q197, I get somewhere between $.34 and $.44 for earnings. I must be going wrong somewhere, but I don't know where. BTW,do you think that Q1 units might be closer to $270K--I think Q4's workers were higher that Q1 by about 10%, in addition to having more overtime. Like your reasoning, though. j.

To: Wayne who wrote (2020)	1/17/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: rogermci®	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7111

Wayne...Did all of CNY fall into Q2 last year? If so this would lead to easy comparisons in this year's Q2. BTW. how many weeks does CNY last? You're not gunning for any investment banking business with Radica with your estimate are you? <<gg>> Roger

To: Wayne who wrote (2020)	1/18/1998 2:14:00 AM
From: Gary105	Respond to of 7111

Wayne, good to see a return to fundamentals......conference call about workers most likely increasing in Q2 over Q1 agrees with the probability of Q2 beating Q1.......trailing earnings of $1.70+ and $2+ over next 2 Qs sounds very good.......seasonal effect suggests p/e should expand as year progresses........I'm looking for basebuilding this Q run to upper teens pre-Q1 earnings....consolidation in upper teens area post Q1.......and new highs with pre-Q2 earnings run. All imo, Gary

To: Wayne who wrote (2020)	1/18/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Anthony Marks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7111

Wayne - when I read your post I almost felt like we had coverage. Great work, thanks for sharing. Some thoughts about Q1. If I understand correctly, in the past the work force was reduced due to a reduction in demand for product (post Xmas). I'm not sure this will be the case in this Q1. I know that's what was talked about in the CC, but the truth is there are still very few toys on the shelf in my area. Lots of space and hooks just no toys. This leads me to believe that we will see a continued demand rather than declining. I think this is unique to this year and the fact that we sold everything before Christmas. If Radica adjusts their workforce (crew size) based on demand the main adjustment could be CNY. It will be interesting to see when the dust settles. (also concider what J said about returned product) Agree that Q2 could also be higher than Q1 because of CNY but also we might see shipping start on some of the new products, mainly NASCAR Racer. Whatever we figure it at, it is going to be a great year.. Here are some crude numbers to play with based on Waynes numbers and previous percentages (25% -75%, first half - second half). This worked pretty well last year. Q1 .45? Q2 .50? Q3 .86? Q4 1.99? 1998 3.80? (very conservative I think) PE range 10-20 = price of $38 - $76 for 98 For you old pros. (That's any one who has been around longer than myself, basically everyone). Do any of you feel that a toy stock could be valued at $76 per share? I would guess we will see some PE compression due to price in the upper end. If you agree, what would be the logical course of action? 40 million shares? Where is this headed? How can you make 20 mill into 40 mill? Hm. Float is already a little small. Hm. Educate me, I haven't been around this type of growth before. Is this probable or just irresponsible posting? Forgive me if it is, I hope not. Anthony PS I've learned a lot from you guys, hope to learn a lot more in 98. Thanks.

To: Wayne who wrote (2020)	2/17/1998 4:56:00 AM
From: Jay Tice	Respond to of 7111

Wayne, I'm coming up with a Q1 est. of .60 shr earnings. I'm basing this on 32 mil revenue at 56% margins. I arrived at the 32 mil by assuming 325,000 units/wk multiplied by 11 wks at $9 av sell price. Looking at post #2020 I see that I'm being a tad more optimistic here than you so let me explain my numbers. First, at the CC we were at 300,000 units/wk. This was about half way into Q1. Going into Q1 we were ( correct me if I'm wrong ) at 400,000, so I see the potential Q1 average as high as 350,000. I used 11 wks cuz Nov 1 to Jan 31 is 13 wks minus 2wks for holiday downtime. I know that $9 per unit is a good deal higher than the $7.10 av for all of 1997, but the trend was toward higher ratio of sport and action ( $11+ ) and from all that I have seen I expect this trend has, and will, continue. With the exception of Yatzee and maybe Battleship, the OEM product hasn't moved at any great rate, and the casino line sales look somewhat flat. If you think I'm in LA LA LAND, please let me know. Just thought it would be fun to take a shot and throw it out there for discussion while I battle insomnia. While I'm here I might as well give my 2 pennies on HAS/Tiger. I see both potential positives and negatives for Radica. I could hypothesize all day long as to the eventual effect but wouldn't bet a dime that any would prove true at this point, so I come back to the here and now, which is high growth and a low PE. It's important to note that a Q1 of .24 would be 100% increase over Q1 1997. Even if the HAS deal breeds enough uncertainty that we see no PE expansion from here, earnings will drive the price to $25 - $35 in 98 IMO. Jay